1. World Energy Outlook Strategic Challenges Hideshi Emoto Senior Energy Analyst International Energy Agency

2. Energy Trends & Strategic Challenges Reference Scenario

3. World Primary Energy Demand
Fossil fuels account for more than 80% of the growth in energy
demand between now and 2030

4. World Nuclear Capacity Additions
Under current policies, projected capacity additions will be a
third of the additions over the past thirty years 50
100
150
200
250
1950-
1970
1971-
1980
1981-
1990
1991-
2000
2001-
2010
2011-
2020
2021-
2030 GW
Projected
Historical

5. Challenge 1: Security of Supply

6. World Oil Production Shifts Away from OECD
Global oil production climbs from 82 mb/d in 2004 to
115 mb/d in 2030; OECD share falls from 25% to 12%

7. MENA Crude Oil & NGL Production by Country
MENA’s share of world oil production rises from 35% in 2004 to 44% in 2030 in the RS, with Saudi production rising to over 18 mb/d

8. MENA Net Oil Exports
MENA plays an increasingly important role in international trade, its net exports surging from 22 mb/d in 2004 to 39 mb/d in 2030

9. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production by Source in the Reference Scenario
Based on its reserves and global demand trends,
Saudi oil production is projected to reach 18 mb/d in 2030

10. Iran’s Oil Balance in the Reference Scenario
Iran oil production reaches 6.8 mb/d in 2030, but exports increase
less rapidly due to strong growth in domestic demand

11. Oil Production Outlook in Iraq in the Reference Scenario
Oil production in Iraq is expected to reach around 3 mb/d in 2010 and
8 mb/d in 2030, provided that stability and security are restored

12. Net Oil Imports by OECD Regions
OECD North
America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific 3 6 9 12 15 18
2004
2030
mb/d
MENA
non MENA
OECD Europe will rely more on MENA oil – imports from MENA reach
8.5 mb/d, or nearly two-thirds of total imports in 2030

13. Proven Natural Gas Reserves
Gas reserves, concentrated in the Middle East & the transition economies, are equal to 66 years of current production

14. MENA Natural Gas Exports
Billion cubic metres
MENA becomes the world’s leading gas exporter, with most of the increase in exports meeting surging European & US LNG demand

15. EU Gas Supply Balance
800
600
bcm
400
200
1980
1990
2004
2010
2020
2030
Production
Net imports
Rising demand – mainly for power generation – and declining output will cause net imports to surge

16. Challenge 2: Carbon Dioxide Emissions

17. World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
Global emissions grow 50% between now and 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s

18. CO2 Increase, 2004-2030 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China OECD
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
China
OECD
million tonnes 3 6 9 12 15
tonnes per capita
2004
2030
Pacific
Europe
North
America
OECD CO2 additions equal to only three quarters of Chinese CO2 rise, but OECD emissions per capita still two times higher in 2030

19. World Alternative Policy Scenario

20. Key Policies in Alternative Scenario for European Union
Power generation
Renewable energy directive
Combined Heat and Power directive
Extension of reactor useful lifetime
Transport sector
Prolongation and tightening of Voluntary Agreement with car manufacturers
Biofuels target
Residential and commercial sectors
Energy performance in buildings directive
Energy labelling

21. Reduction in Oil Demand in the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario, 2030
Oil savings = 12.1 mb/d
Oil savings in 2030 would be equivalent to the combined current production of Saudi Arabia and the UAE

23. Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
million tonnes of CO 2
Coal
Oil
Gas
Alternative Policy Scenario
Reference Scenario
In 2030, CO2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50% higher than 1990

24. Share of Nuclear Power in World Electricity Generation0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1990
2003
2010
2020
2030
Reference
Alternative
Policies going beyond the Alternative Scenario will be needed to
maintain or increase the share of nuclear power

25. Projected market trends raise serious concerns
Summary & Conclusions
Projected market trends raise serious concerns
Increased risk for energy security
Rising environmental concerns
More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand and emission significantly
Nuclear power can largely contribute toward meeting these challenges
Urgent and decisive government action needed

26. World Alternative Policy Scenario
WEO 2006: Preliminary plan
World Alternative Policy Scenario
a “tool for change”
Deepening and broadening the analysis
Impact of high energy prices
Impact of high oil, gas and electricity prices on energy demand and macro economy
Focus on developing Asia
Energy Investment Prospects
Requirements vs. projects and plans
Role for Nuclear
Availability of uranium and costs
Nuclear investments in competitive markets