1. Wind Energy: Status and Future Tom Williams NREL FLC Mid-Continent Regional Meeting September 2005

2. Topics NREL Market Drivers for Renewable Energy Wind Energy Markets Today R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

3. National Renewable Energy Laboratory  Only national laboratory dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D  Research spans fundamental science to technology solutions  Collaboration with industry and university partners is a hallmark  Research programs linked to market opportunities

4. Major NREL Program Areas Supply Side Wind Energy Solar Energy Biomass/Biofuels Energy Systems Geothermal Technology Hydrogen Research Electric Energy Systems and Storage Demand Side Transportation Buildings Technology Industry Federal Energy Management Cross Cutting Office of Science Analytical Studies International Resource Assessment

5. National Wind Technology Center Built in 1981 as the Small Wind Test Center on 280 acres Dedicated as the National Wind Technology Center in 1994 Today the NWTC is a world class state-of-the-art research facility on 305 acres testing advanced wind turbine technologies

6. Topics NRELNREL Market Drivers for Renewable EnergyMarket Drivers for Renewable Energy Wind Energy Markets TodayWind Energy Markets Today R&D and Future Prospects for WindR&D and Future Prospects for Wind

7. Atmospheric Concentration of CO 2 Source: Adapted from W.M. Post, T.H. Peng, W.R. Emanuel, A.W. King, V.H. Dale, and D. DeAngelis. American Scientist, 1990. “The Global Carbon Cycle.” Year Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration (PPMV)

8. U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Saudi Arabia 26% Iraq 11% Kuwait 10% Iran 9% UAE 8% Venezuela 6% Russia 5% Mexico 3% Libya 3% China 3% Nigeria 2% U.S. 2% U.S.26% Japan 7% China 6% Germany 4% Russia 3% S. Korea 3% France 3% Italy 3% Mexico 3% Brazil 3% Canada 3% India 3% Updated August 2002 Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1. Have Oil Use Oil The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined. The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined.

9. World Population Growth, 1750-2100 Source: Population Reference Bureau 10 8 6 4 2 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Billions Developing Countries Industrial Countries

10. The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy 0.1 1 10 100 0.11101001000 Energy Consumption Per Capita (MMBTU/person) GDP Per Capita ($000/person) Poverty Affluence Ethiopia United Kingdom Mexico Bangladesh China Poland South Korea United States France Japan Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1998 Tables E1, B1, B2; Mike Grillot, 5/17/00 Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 1997 in 1990 dollars. Energy Consumption per capita is 1997. El Salvador Russia

11. Long-Term Drivers for Renewable Energy Environmental –Greenhouse gas emissions –Other environmental impacts (air quality, acid rain, land use, water use) National Energy Security –Reduce dependency on imported oil (political and economic risk) Social and Political –Energy necessary to reduce gap between developed and developing world –World political pressure Economic –Least-cost energy solution –Reduced price uncertainty –Grid optimization

12. Topics NREL Market Drivers for Renewable EnergyMarket Drivers for Renewable Energy Wind Energy Markets Today R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

13. U.S. Energy Consumption by source - 1850-1999 Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables. 1997-1999, Annual Energy Review 1999, Table F1b. Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Non-hydro Renewables Wood

14. Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide Rest of World ActualProjected Rest of World North America Europe Jan 2005 Cumulative MW =46,048 Rest of World = 5,147 North America = 7,241 Europe = 33,660 MW Installed Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003 Windpower Monthly, January 2005 *NREL Estimate for 2005

15. Sizes and Applications Small (  10 kW) Homes (Grid connected) Farms Remote Applications (e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking) Intermediate (10-500 kW) Village Power Hybrid Systems Distributed Power Large (500 kW – 6 MW) Central Station Wind Farms Distributed Power Offshore Wind Generation Stations

17. United States Wind Power Capacity (MW) 6,770 MW as of 12/31/04 Alaska 1 California 2,096 Colorado 229 Hawaii 9 Iowa 632 Kansas 114 Massachusetts 1 Michigan 2 Minnesota 615 Nebraska 20 New Mexico 267 New York 48 North Dakota 66 Oregon 259 Pennsylvania 129 Tennessee 29 Texas 1,293 Vermont 6 Wisconsin 53 Wyoming 285 Washington 244 South Dakota 44 West Virginia 66 Arkansas 0.1 Idaho 0.2 Maine 0.1 Montana 2 New Hampshire 0.1 Oklahoma 176 Utah 0.2 Illinois 81 Ohio 7

18. Topics NREL Market Drivers for Renewable Energy Wind Energy Markets Today R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

19. Reducing the Cost of Energy

20. DOE Goal for Utility Scale Wind Systems Develop wind turbines capable of 3 cents/kWh on land and 5 cents offshore in Class 4 (13 mph) wind sites by 2012: Making more wind sites available close to load centers Increases the area for wind development by a factor of 20+ Developing advanced wind technology for opening the U.S. offshore regions for wind development Trent Mesa, Texas

21. Offshore GE 3.6 MW 104 meter rotor diameter Offshore design requirements considered from the outset: –Crane system for all components –Simplified installation –Helicopter platform Offshore GE Wind Energy 3.6 MW Prototype Boeing 747-400

22. Clipper LWST Prototype 2.5 MW with 93 m Rotor

23. Offshore Wind Potential for New England Preliminary Data

24. Evolution To Deep Water Wind Turbines

25. Avian Interactions Research  Data suggest the most significant avian wind-turbine interaction problem in the U.S. is in the Altamont WRA.  There is no reason that avian issues should be a concern for future wind farm development; any potential problem should be identified and dealt with before micrositing occurs.  Two guidance documents have been adopted by the NWCC: (1) Permitting of Wind Energy Facilities, and (2) Metrics and Methods for Avian Studies. These two documents serve as guidance for siting and development of new wind farms in the U.S.  Facilities developed following these guidelines have not experienced significant avian impact issues. NREL Avian Library Available at: www.nrel.gov/wind/avian_lit.html

26. Infrared Image of a Bat Flying Through a Wind Turbine Rotor Taken by Jason Horn, Boston University Collaborative Wildlife Research National Wind Coordinating Committee Bat & Wind Energy Collaborative

27. LWST Turbines: 3¢/kWh at 13mph Electricity Market 2012 Offshore LWST Turbine: 5 cents/kWh Shallow/Deep water Electricity Market Higher wind Sites 2012 and Beyond Custom Turbines: Electricity H2 production Desalinate water Storage Multi-Market 2030 and Beyond A Future Vision for Wind Energy 2004 Bulk Power Generator 4-6¢ at 15mph Land Based Bulk Electricity Wind Farms Potential 20% of Electricity Market Land Based Electricity PathTransmission Barriers Cost & Regulatory Barriers Land or Sea Based: Hydrogen Clean Water Cost & Infrastructure Barriers Land Based LWST Large-Scale 2–5 MW Offshore Turbines 5 MW and Larger Future Offshore Electricity Path Advanced Applications Path