1. 1 NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Plan Stephen Lord Ants Leetmaa November 2004

2. 2 NOAA Earth System Modeling Goal: to develop, implement, and sustain NOAA’s next- generation environmental models as an Earth system model - Covering broad range of applications atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice, space - An enterprise NOAA modeling system— emphasis on scalability, extensibility and interoperability - Part of a broader community modeling system infrastructure and process Process - Community-based software - Infrastructure to sustain flow of new science and technology into NOAA modeling systems - Improve operations and to open new research opportunities

3. 3 NOAA Earth System Modeling Applications Weather: mesoscale to global Ocean: deep ocean to coastal to estuary Hydrology: river flow, flood prediction, water resource information Climate: monthly to seasonal-interannual, decadal- centennial Air/water Chemistry: air quality to global pollutant transport Ecosystem management (biogeochemical) Space weather

4. 4 Near term roadmap 1.Establish Working Group chaired by Environmental Modeling Program Manager - Responsible for comprehensive plan for NOAA’s next generation numerical models - Coordination with broader ESMF effort - Detailed Planning and project execution oversight 2.Develop and adopt an ESMF-compatible design (NOAA-ESMF) for the Integrated NOAA Environmental Modeling System - Prototype and document NOAA-ESMF infrastructure - Prototype and demonstration projects for biogeochemical and ecosystem forecast models 3.Develop and Implement necessary NOAA-ESMF Infrastructure 4.Implement existing NOAA Models into NOAA-ESMF - Implementation of WRF into NOAA-ESMF; - Implementation of GFDL Earth System Modeling codes into NOAA-ESMF - Implementation of NWS Operational Models codes into NOAA-ESMF - Implementation of NOS codes into NOAA-ESMF 5.Maintain NOAA-ESMF Documentation and Infrastructure

5. 5 Ongoing Activities Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model partnership - Partners: NOAA*, NCAR*, DOD, DOT - Objective: Next-generation mesoscale model for research and operations - Status: Developmental testing ongoing. NOAA IOC: Sept 2004 Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) initiative - Partners: NOAA, NCAR*, DOD, DOT, NASA, MIT - Objective: Common modeling infrastructure for research and operations - Status: Development ongoing. Planned IOC: 2005 Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) - Partners: NOAA*, NASA*, DOD, DOT, NCAR - Objective: Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational environmental models - Status: Development ongoing. NCEP implementations ongoing. * Lead agency

6. 6 Schedule and Milestones WRF and ESMF Milestones FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 WRF Implementation High Resolution WRF Ensemble x North American WRF (Replace Eta) x WRF Hurricane x Rapid Refresh WRF x WRF Short Range Ensemble Forecast x

7. 7 Schedule and Milestones NOAA-ESMF Comprehensive Integration Plan Establish Working Group Q2 Publish Final Plan Q4 NOAA-ESMF Design Complete x Place based EM forecast prototypes Great Lakes x Southeast/east coastx West Coast x NOAA-ESMF Infrastructure Complete 20% 60% 80% 100% Implement Existing NOAA Models in NOAA-ESMF 30% 50% 70% 90% 100% WRF 100% GFDL NWS Operational Codes NOS Codes Begin Sustaining Maintenance x Milestones FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

8. 8 Backup Slides

9. 9 Envisioned Partners NOAA—all NOAA line offices Other Government - NSF—NCAR - NASA—Goddard, Langley, Marshall - DOD—USAF and USN - DOT, DOE, … Academia Private Sector

10. 10 Integrated Modeling Draft Vision Statement " Over next 5 years and beyond, NOAA and its partners will begin to exploit new interdisciplinary approaches to develop a series of fully coupled earth system models. These systems will be used to analyze and predict the state of the atmosphere, the ocean, land surface, hydrologic cycle and biogeochemical cycles all within the framework of a unified modeling system. The system will be based on a community model approach that will link the nation's scientific advances to NOAA's improvement goals."