1. Energy Sector ETAAC Meeting July 2, 2007 Sacramento, CA

2. Renewable Energy Technologies CA RPS-eligible renewable resources: –Wind –Solar (concentrating thermal and photovoltaic) –Small hydro (less than 30 MW w/o new diversion) –Geothermal –Biomass, biogas (landfill gas, digester) –Fuel cell using renewable fuel –Municipal solid waste conversion using a non- combustion thermal process –Ocean wave, ocean thermal, tidal current

3. Solar - Photovoltaics

4. Resource Patterns Source: CEC PIER-funded study by GE Energy, July 2006 Temporal Pattern: July 2003 Average Day

5. Projected Costs of Solar According to CEC Source: Developing Cost-Effective Solar Resources with Electricity System Benefits JUNE 2005 CEC-500-2005-104 Solar Energy Technologies Program Multiyear Technical Plan, NREL Report No. MP-52033875; DOE/GO-102004-1775. ¢/kWh

6. Cost/Efficiency of Photovoltaic Technologies Source: N. Lewis, California Institute of Technology Type I technology is today’s crystalline silicon. Type II technologies are current cutting- edge thin films, such as amorphous silicon and CIGS Type III technology will come from future break- throughs (e.g., multi-junction, nano materials, etc.).

7. Next Generation Commercial Possibility Today’s research PV cells have efficiency almost twice efficiency of current commercial PV Current PV Panel Source: K. Zweibel PV-PAST THE TIPPING POINT Presentation at NREL 08/31/2005

8. Solar Price Learning Curve Solar Panel Cost Drops by 19% With Each Doubling in Manufacturing Capacity Source: SunPower, June 25, 2007 1 10 100 110100100010000 Cumulative Production (MW) Module Price (2002$) 1979 $32/W 2002 $3.10/W Silicon Shortage 81% Progress Ratio

9. Solar Price Learning Curve Solar Panel Learning Curve Predicts Retail Rate Parity < Decade Source: SunPower, June 25, 2007 1 10 100 1101001,00010,000100,000 Cumulative Production (MW) Module Price ($/W) ($2002) Historical Projected 1980 $21.83/W 1990 $6.07/W 2000 $3.89/W 2010 $1.82/W 2013 $1.44/W 2002 Roadmap

10. Progress on the Learning Curve Source: Robert Margolis’ PhD Thesis, 2002

11. Advanced Silicon PV Efficiencies now reaching between 20 and 22% 50% expected cost reduction –Poly/Ingot: Contract prices drop 2008 –Wafers: Thinner wafers, thinner saw wire –Cells: higher efficiency, fewer process steps –Panels: Smarter design, auto-line –Systems: Smarter design, channel efficiencies Source: SunPower, June 25, 2007

12. Advanced Silicon PV Future Cost Reduction Drivers –Thinner wafers –Higher efficiency –Improvements in crystal growth technology –Improvements in slicing technology –Improvements in cell processing technology –New lower cost silicon refining technologies –Increased manufacturing scale: 200 MW to 500 MW plant size Source: SunPower, June 25, 2007

13. Cost or Efficiency? Source: SunPower, June 25, 2007

14. Solar Initiative Funding

15. Installations and Rebate Levels (CPUC program only)

16. PV Peak Day Demand Impacts Boxes represent ranges within which 75% of project-specific values lie, and vertical lines represent total ranges (maximum and minimum) or project-specific values.