1. Putting the Brakes on Climate Change 15 th October 2003

2. Introduction Based on ippr report Malcolm Fergusson, IEEP –Balance of fuel efficiency versus traffic growth –Trends and future prospects Julie Foley, ippr –Need for continuing efforts –New policy measures including road pricing

3. Car dependency and road freight New car sales in 2002 - 2.5 million Since mid 1980s: - 24% increase in average number of car trips per person - 60% increase in distance travelled by car - 40% increase in goods traffic Lorries account for 2% of vehicles but 13% of motorway traffic (DfT Transport Statistics, 2003)

4. Road traffic trend and forecast (DfT Transport Statistics & NTM, 2003)

5. Road traffic CO 2 trend (Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2001)

6. The National Transport Model New model predicts traffic, emissions Improvement on previous forecasts Key assumptions –20% improvement in car fuel economy –12.5-15% improvement for vans and trucks –Car fuel cost falls by 30% 2000-2010 –20-25% traffic growth to 2010 Predicts CO 2 level or falling to 2010

7. IEEPs road transport CO 2 model Used similar model to test results Key differences –Slightly less optimistic on car fuel economy –Much less optimistic for vans and trucks Also projections to 2020 Compared to emissions from other sectors

8. Projected UK CO 2 emissions (Measured in MtC)

9. Implications for UK Climate Programme Transport CO 2 could resume growth Will grow as a share of total Could jeopardise the 20% CO 2 target Transport CO 2 reductions not assured Traffic growth is still an issue

10. Mitigating road transports contribution to climate change A reduction (reduced growth) in CO 2 emissions from road transport should be a new PSA Price signals, voluntary measures and low carbon technologies needed Congestion charge research undertaken by Imperial College

11. Congestion charge results

12. Average money cost for rural versus urban motorists in 2010

13. Winning over the motorist Little extra money for transport in the next spending review & beyond A national revenue raising charge introduced in 2010 could raise an extra £16 bn per year Revenue from charging should pay for better roads & public transport Government should abolish Vehicle Excise Duty (£4.5 bn in 2002/3)

14. Voluntary agreements for improving fuel efficiency Further target of 120g/km CO 2 for the average new car fleet by early in the next decade EC should adopt a more ambitious target for 2020 of 100 g/km CO 2 or less New measures for improving the fuel efficiency of good vehicles needed

15. Report available at: www.ippr.org/sustainability