1. Outlook Presentation Updated 3.24.11 Darrell Holaday Advanced Market Concepts/Country Futures dholaday@amcplus.com 800.292.4038 Wamego KS AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

2. How Did This Happen?

7. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Is the Recession Over?? GDP improved

8. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Is the Recession Over?? GDP improved Consumer Expenditures Increased

9. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

10. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

11. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Is the Recession Over?? GDP improved Consumer Expenditures Increased Inflation under control?? – Food and Energy

12. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

13. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Is the Recession Over?? GDP improved Consumer Expenditures Increased Inflation under control?? – Food and Energy What about Employment? – How do you explain 9%?

14. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

15. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Is the Recession Over?? Debt issues still haunting this economy – Public and Private Explosion in Asian Economies

16. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Why are Food Commodities so much higher? Corn Yield in 2010 was the flame The drought in Russia was the spark Asian economies growing at 6-10% annual rates. US Exports benefiting from other problems. US and World Consumers are going to see a much larger piece of their income pie going to food and energy. – Ultimately this is negative for GDP growth.

17. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC This was the flame that changed everything!

18. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

19. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

20. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Corn/ Feed Grains Corn is still the backbone of the strength Yields disappointing Down 5%-7 from Trend and Expectations Still a lot of questions as to why Energy drives corn – Has been true since US Govt Initiative in Ethanol – Tax Credits Important but the Mandate is much more IMPORTANT. How would mandate work without Tax Credits. What is the impact of Ethanol on the price of corn?

21. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

22. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

23. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

24. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

25. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

26. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Corn / Feed Grains Price has not seemed to trim use of corn domestically (or internationally). – Somebody has to stop. The markets job is to make someone lose money using corn. – It cannot live with ending stock to use ratio at 5%. – Who will stop first?? Did the Japanese Earthquake Trim Use?? Tremendous pressure to increase acres to 93 million with at 160 bushel yield. Acreage “fight” will be more interesting than any year in the past.

27. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

28. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC How is this at a tight stock situation?

29. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

30. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

31. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

32. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

33. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Corn What I Like Tied To Energy and Overall demand for energy is still growing. We have not rationed supplies. Stocks for the current crop year have to increase. The fight for acreage will be fierce. Corn Inventory in strong hands. There will be much more concern about prospective yields after last year. What I dislike A lot of feed wheat in the world. Japan’s purchases will be reduced in the short run. Tax credits may be on their last leg. How do we exist with no tax credits and a mandatory blending level? Cattle and ethanol use may both decline at the same time.

34. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Wheat Fundamentally this market is generally the weakest of the sector. The Russian drought changed the “ world psychology” – Started a small avalanche of production problems The problems in Russia and Australia have pushed business to the US. Also had Canadian and EU Problems this year USSOUTHERN PLAINS GETTING ATTENTION !!

35. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

36. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

37. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

38. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

39. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

40. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

41. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

42. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

43. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

44. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

45. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

46. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

47. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

48. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Wheat What I Like Bullish Psychology Weather problems in the world. US and China, Russia. Will be another fight for acreage that may trim some wheat acres from the high expectations. Wheat is a competitive feed in many parts of the world. CORN What I dislike US and World Stocks still in reasonable shape if yields come through without big acreage increase. Still a lot of wheat in the US. Australia will “fill the boat” with wheat acres. Could be a false price signal and will attract too many acres Basis and the possible contract changes

49. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Soybeans Overall long term growth in demand remains strong. – Still a growing protein market and China consumption reflects this fact. We are beginning to see the growth in yield capability. – Started in 2009 – New Genetics will promote additional yield gains. South American production will slow US exports, but Argentine crop stunted. China carries the big stick in this market.

50. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Soybeans Overall long term growth in demand remains strong. – Still a growing protein market and China consumption reflects this fact. We are beginning to see the growth in yield capability. – Started in 2009 – New Genetics will promote additional yield gains. South American production will slow US exports, but Argentine crop stunted. China carries the big stick in this market.

51. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

52. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

53. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

54. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

55. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

56. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

57. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

58. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

59. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

60. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

61. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

62. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

63. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

64. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

65. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Soybeans What I Like Market cannot deal with ending stock number near 100 million bus in the US Chinese Consumption Argentina crop has questions and a long way to go. Macro Psychology of inflation still dominates Soyoil Demand still strong despite biodiesel. The industry cannot let acres slip like they did the last time US corn acres jumped up over 93 million (2007) What I dislike CHINA, but no sign of trouble yet. If inflation play disappears, soybean values will retreat. There is no pullback in South American production. Price will eventually destroy some market.

66. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Crop Insurance and Marketing RMA offers very Puts and Calls Don’t Exclude the Harvest Option Consider selling “Puts”? Consider selling “Calls”? Crop Insurance allows for more aggressive forward pricing.

67. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Meats Inventories Have declined significantly in US and Much of the World Beef Demand Exploding in Asia (Until Earthquake). – Poultry Increasing supplies gradually – Can’t Build Beef Consumption if Supplies Shrinking But World supplies of protein Very Tight Good Demand in Asia extremely positive – Beef and Pork Exports the big story

68. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Cattle Corn Price and Overall Economy (Unemployment driving near term psychology Cattle have been marketed very orderly and that has been critical. Calf supplies continuing to shrink and COF numbers declining should eventually decline Numbers do not indicate any herd building – The lack of grass is the number one impediment to herd rebuilding Corn is the next problem THE LACK OF GRASS IS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR COW HERD EXPANSION!!

69. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

70. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

71. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

72. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

73. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

74. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

75. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

76. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

77. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

78. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

79. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

80. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

81. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

82. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

83. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

84. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC

85. AMC COUNTRY FUTURES INC Meats Cont’d Poultry product still grow 2-3% this year. Will gain US market share in the US versus pork and beef Cattle and Hog futures have built in steep premium to cash anticipating substantial drop in supplies.