1. BIOMASS FUTURES: Food, Fuel and the Environment: The implications for land use in Europe and beyond Ben Allen and Hannah Lee Institute for European Environmental Policy EIE/08/ 653/ June 2009- December 2011

2. Overview Finite nature of land How land is used Food production drivers Biomass production drivers Agriculture Increased agricultural output Land use consequences Indirect Land Use Change Conclusions Ways forwards 2 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

3. The finite nature of land Changed, developed, eroded but rarely created 3

4. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 The finite nature of land Physical presence (total area of land) Constrained use (accessible area of land) – Economic – Topographical – Geo-political – Climatic – Environmental 4

5. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Land cover of the EU 5

6. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Simple land use map 6 Forest Agricultural Crop Agricultural Crop Agricultural Pasture Forest Urban Semi-natural Marginal/Idle Water

7. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Simple land use map Increased Urbanisation Increased forest cover Maintained agricultural area Decreased semi- natural Increased use of marginal/idle land Decreased space for ecosystem services 7 Forest Agricultural Crop Agricultural Pasture Forest Semi-natural Agricultural Crop Urban Water

8. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Simple land use map 8 Forest Increased Urbanisation Increased forest cover Maintained agricultural area Decreased semi- natural Increased use of marginal/idle land Decreased space for ecosystem services

9. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Future food production drivers 2010 - 2050 Population increase to 9bn Changing diets (more meat & cereals) > 1/3 of world grain fed to livestock (70% in some countries) Food production demands up 50%+ 9 Better supply chains, reduced waste, still need increased production. EUs role?

10. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Bioenergy production drivers 2010 - 2020 2009/28/EC (RED) renewable transport fuels 10% (soya/rape/maize = 92%) renewable energy 20% (2-3x from agriculture and forestry) Biomass contribution Transport - 23Mtoe (increase of 16.6Mtoe) Energy - 150Mtoe 2010 to ~230Mtoe 2020 10

11. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Agriculture 1961 – 2007 Global population increased 110% Global agricultural area increased 11% – Industrial countries – 3% – Developing countries + 21% 11 1990 – 2010 EU EU agricultural area (+/- 3%) EU crop yields increased by 29% Source: OECD Agricultural Outlook 2010 – 2019)

12. Industrialised countries Knowledge, Science & Technology Increased yields Developing countries Expanded agricultural area Some increase in mechanisation June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Increased agricultural output 12 Crop \ CountriesEULeast Developed Countries Cereals5,0521,463 Coarse Grains4,7801,040 Primary Oil crops872248 Pulses2,250654

13. More food, more fuel: what can we do in ten years? Increased yields New crop varieties > 10years Inputs more costly Climatic variation Resource constraints (water, phosphate, land, labour) Increased area Net Land Balances suggest area is available 1.56bn ha (1.4bn ha currently) Land largely outside the EU and in low production areas Competing land uses (urbanisation, forestry) June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Increased agricultural output 13

14. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Land use consequences Short to medium term (to 2020) Questions over available land or how to produce Technologies such as GM are not online yet Intensification/precision more likely Expansion of area definite Medium to long term (2020+) New technologies/varieties may come online Many still likely to be reliant on inputs Yield requirements mean probable need for expansion of area for production to become sustainable but from where? Increased food and fuel efficiency EU Currently the largest importer of biofuels, and second largest importer of food, small area of available land. 14

15. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Land use consequences 15 Forest Agricultural Crop Agricultural Pasture Forest Semi-natural Agricultural Crop Urban Water

16. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Global footprint 16 Forest Agricultural Crop Agricultural Pasture Forest Semi-natural Agricultural Crop Urban Water

17. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 The ILUC debate Highly likely to see direct and indirect land use changes from food and biofuel demands ILUC not just from biofuels In the biofuel context Modeling exercises indicate: emissions may be substantial. Large uncertainty across studies IEEP study (NREAPs and model studies) shows biofuels performing substantially worse than fossil fuels in terms of GHG emissions. NREAPs: MS rely to a large extent on first-generation biofuels further adding to the pressure on land 17

18. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Conclusions EU focused policies, global impact Land is finite and faces increasing demands Up to 2020, demands for food and fuel are unlikely to be met through technology and yields. Expansion of area is likely Land use consequences are inevitable and felt strongest on low economic value land Land Use Change is not just a biofuels debate 18

19. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Ways forwards Increased efficiency in food and fuel supply and investigate the potential of advanced, waste-based biofuels Join together thinking on sustainable land based production for food, fuel, and the environment Expand thinking across other land uses to truly understand the global impacts and solutions to managing and using land for an increasing population. 19

20. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Thank you www.ieep.eu IEEP is an independent not for profit institute dedicated to advancing an environmentally sustainable Europe through policy analysis, development and dissemination. ballen@ieep.eu 20