1. Water and agriculture in Europe under a changing climate Martin Parry Imperial College London martin@mlparry.com

2. Rising atmospheric temperature Rising sea level Reductions in NH snow cover Warming is unequivocal

3. THE KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF EUROPEAN CLIMATE CHANGE Annual temperatures increase at the rate of 0.1 to 0.4 C/decade Hot summers will double in frequency by 2020 (increase x5 in S. Spain); 10 times as frequent by 2080 Summers become drier in S. Europe Winters become wetter in N. Europe; and intensity of rainfall increases Additional risks: possibility of change in the Gulf Stream; at present little known about this.

4. Summer Precipitation (only significant changes shown) Acacia project

5. Daily maximum temperatures Number of days per year above 30°C UK Met. Office 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 200 Present2080s

6. WATER AVAILABILITY, 2050s (CHANGE IN ANNUAL RUNOFF) Acacia Project

7. WATER AVAILABILITY Increased availability of water in northern Europe; increased risk of flooding. Reduced availability of water in southern Europe. And in the mountains: increased flood risk (20% increase of flood risk in Alps

8. Reduced summer rainfall will increase risks of: –Irrigation water shortages –Reduced diluting of pollution –Reduced crop yields –Soil loss on light lands –Reduced water cooling for power stations Impacts of reduced Summer rainfall

9. Heavier, more intense winter rainfall will increase risks of: –River flooding –Soil leaching –Soil water-logging, –Difficult access to land for animals/machines Impacts of winter rainfall increase …

10. Effects on food production

11. Suitability for grain maize cultivation with increasing temperature +5°C +4°C +3°C +2°C +1°C baseline (1961-1990) unsuitable Expansion of suitable area with increased temperature

12. NORTHWARD SHIFDT OF FARMING POTENTIAL Suitability for grain maize, sunflower and soya, 2050s red/brown/blue: suitability extension green/yellow/purple: Baseline 1961-90

13. Changes in wheat yield, 2080 ( amount of agreement between 9 regional models, A2) PRUDENCE Reduced yield in all models Increased yield in all models Models do not agree

14. France: Several thousand excess deaths Dry Danube Croatia - fires UK train tracks buckle HEATWAVE AUGUST, 2003 IN EUROPE

15. Effects of 2003 summer heat wave on EU agriculture COPA

17. Farmed landscape,Eastern England, 2050 ? Univ of East Anglia, U.K. Northward movement of crops Farm-scale biofuel power station Introduction of biofuel crops e.g. Miscanthus spp. Increase in renewable energy sources Farmed landscape, Eastern England, 2000

18. climate change over Europe Global climate change First order impacts on food production Second order effects on world prices and demand Global climate change First order impacts on food production Second order effects on world prices and demand Europe in the context of global climate change

19. Most key impacts stem from reduced water availability. Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where less than two-thirds of models agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree (IPCC SYR)

20. Suitability for rain-fed cereals (reference climate, 1961-90). Change in suitability for rain-fed cereals (HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s).

22. Financed adaptation 1234 Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial Cancun agreed $100 bn target funding

23. Emissions cuts pledged at Copenhagen mitigation Emission peak 2035; T peaks 2100 at c. 3 deg C

24. outcome for current pledges Financed adaptation Impacts not avoided 1234 Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial

25. outcome for current pledges Financed adaptation Impacts not avoided 1234 Global mean annual temperature relative to pre-industrial TASK 1 TASK 2

26. Conclusions (1) : Effects… Warmer in the north; drier in the south; intensification of rainfall; increased frequency of extremely hot days or seasons. This implies more benefits to the north; more disbenefits to the south. Will worsen current resource issues: e.g, more water shortage and heat stress in south; and more flooding in the centre, north and mountains. May aggravate current environmental problems: eg desertification in south; soil leaching in north. = a south-to-north geographical shift of climate resources in Europe; increasing the difference in regional resource endowment.

27. Conclusions (2) : Implications for policy in Europe Need : a) a north-to-south shift of support policies to compensate for shift of climate resources. Need: b) to mainstream climate change into EU policy development: eg i) into environmental policies, such as directives on water, policies on desertification. (This has started). ii) into regional support policies. In the global context, Europe faces less negative effects than most other parts of the world, implying: a) There may be an opportunity to increase Europes share of world food production; b) And, from the global viewpoint, it will be necessary to increase food production in Europe in order to maintain global food security.

28. Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation http:// www.provia-climatechange.org

29. Programme of Research On Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation http:// www.provia-climatechange.org Professor Martin Parry Grantham Institute, Imperial College London Chair, Pro-Via Interim Scientific Steering Committee THANK YOU!