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Climate Change: Summary of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report November 2007
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About the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/ The IPCC was established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation.
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About the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Its constituency is made of : –The governments: the IPCC is open to all member countries of WMO and UNEP. –The scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewers.
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About the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report +2,500 expert reviewers 800 contributing authors 450 lead authors from 130 countries. - Vision of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, November 12, 2007
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Controversies in the Popular Theory of Global Warming Complexity! Model-based. Alternative causes for warming? Politicized science? Unwarranted Doom and Gloom? Anti-capitalism agenda? Global warming leading to global cooling?
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Observations
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Figure 1.3
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Alpine Glacier Retreat Retreat of 7 miles and 800 meter thinning. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center 19412004
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Sea Ice Loss Over Time Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Figure 4.10 Sea ice extent in the Nordic Sea
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Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent (1979 versus 2003) Image courtesy of NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center
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Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Thickness
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Figure 4.5 Timing of Ice Formation and Breakup
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Greenland Ice Sheet Meltdown
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Observed and modeled ocean temp. changes Hansen et al., 2005. Science vol. 308
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Trends in Various Parameters
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What Impacts Climate?
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What Impacts Radiation Balance?
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Figure 2.1
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Must Quantify Radiation Balance
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Hansen et al., 2005. Science vol. 308 What Controls Global Warming?
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Where Do You Go To Find Records of Climate Change? Antarctica Vostok ice core
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Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Over Time and Correlation to 18 O
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FAQ 2.1, Figure 1
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Rates of Change in Greenhouse Gases
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Figure 2.6 Atmospheric concentrations of CFS and associated anthropogenic compounds
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Figure 2.18
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What goes into the models?
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FAQ 9.2, Figure 1 Confidence in models?
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Figure 1.1 1990 1996 2001 Model Evolution
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Hansen et al., 2005. Science vol. 308 What Controls Global Warming?
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How do the models work
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Models of Future Warming Will temperature increase be uniform across the globe? +10°F
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Differential Temp Change The results are based on climate change simulations made with the Coupled Global Climate Model developed by Environment Canada. From Atlas of Canada http://atlas.gc.ca/site/english/maps/climatechange/scenarios/globalannualtemp2100 20502100 Annual Temperature Change from 1975-95 to 2040-60 (°C) -3 - -2 0 - 1 3 - 4 6 - 7 8 - 9 12 - 15
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Variability in Temp and Rainfall with Latitude and Model
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Comparison of Warming Models
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Comparison of Warming and Precipitation Models – Winter vs Summer
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Figure 10.12
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Figure 10.19
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What are Ramifications for Shelled Organisms in the Ocean?
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Figure 5.13
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Sea Level Rise Under Different Scenarios Press presentation, Nov. 17, 2007
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FAQ 5.1, Figure 1
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Contributions to Sea Level Rise
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Greenland Ice Sheet Meltdown
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The Concept of Tipping Points
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Inertia in the System
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General Predictions of Impacts over 21st Century Source - IPCC WGII TAR 2001Thanks to Martha Groom
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Source: R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective. People at Risk from a 17-inch Sea-level Rise by the 2080s* *Assuming 1990s level of flood protection
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Source: EPA Louisiana Shoreline Change with a 20-inch Rise in Sea Level Lake Charles Lafayette Baton Rouge Morgan City Houma New Orleans Gulf of Mexico Land Lost
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South Florida Shoreline Change with a 1m Rise in Sea Level
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Projections of Greenland Ice Volume
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Models of Future Global Warming 2050 Sea Level Rise Associated with collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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