1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

2. Impact of Climate Change: A Discussion on Strategies and Planning for the City of Ames Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Ames City Council 20 October 2009

3. Outline  Latest climate science in the run- up to Copenhagen (December)  Observed climate change in Iowa  Future climate change for Iowa and the US Midwest  Possible planning and policy implications  Buildings and infrastructure  Image and marketing  Planning for those least able to cope  Latest climate science in the run- up to Copenhagen (December)  Observed climate change in Iowa  Future climate change for Iowa and the US Midwest  Possible planning and policy implications  Buildings and infrastructure  Image and marketing  Planning for those least able to cope

4. Global Carbon Emissions (Gt) Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

5. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Balanced fuel sources Energy intensive More environmentally friendly If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007 FI =fossil intensive

6. Arctic Sea-Ice Decline Actual sea-ice cover declines are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 2007 IPCC report Eos, Vol. 90, No. 37, 15 September 2009

7. http://cires.colorado.edu/steffen/melt/index.html

8. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

9. Decline in Greenland Ice Mass Greenland annual ice mass loss exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 2007 IPCC report http://cires.colorado.edu/steffen/melt/index.html

10. Actual sea-ice cover declines are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 2007 IPCC report

11. Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas Projected sea-level Rise in 21st century: IPCC, 2007: 18-59 cm Rahmstorf, 2009: 50-140 cm (obs) Corell, 2004: 50-100 cm Rahmstorf, 2009: 75-190 cm (model)

12. …climate scientists have, en masse, become Cassandras — gifted with the ability to prophesy future disasters, but cursed with the inability to get anyone to believe them. Paul Krugman, NY Times 09/27/09 Cassandras of Climate

13. Rise in global mean temperature ( o C)

14. Long-Term Stabilization Profiles A2 B1 Nebojša Nakićenović IIASA, Vienna

15. IPCC 2007

16. June-July- August Temperature Change A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980- 1999 2.5 3.0 IPCC 2007

18. December- January- February Temperature Change A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980- 1999 4.0 3.5 IPCC 2007

20. June-July- August Precipitation Change A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980- 1999 -0.1 0.0 IPCC 2007

22. December- January- February Precipitation Change A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980- 1999 0.0 0.1 IPCC 2007

23. Adapted from Folland et al. [2001] Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000

24. Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 2009 so far: 0

25. Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 2009 so far: 0 6 days ≥ 100 o F in the last 20 years

26. Des Moines Airport Data

28. Ames Data

29. State-Wide Average Data

31. Cedar Rapids Data

32. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

33. Cedar Rapids Data

34. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

35. State-Wide Average Data

36. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Balanced fuel sources More environmentally friendly

37. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible Energy intensive Balanced fuel sources More environmentally friendly Adaptation Crucial

38. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More freeze-thaw cycles (high)  Increased temperature variability (high)  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More freeze-thaw cycles (high)  Increased temperature variability (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

39.  More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)  Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)  More variability of summer precipitation (high)  More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)  Higher episodic streamflow (medium)  Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium)  More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)  Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)  More variability of summer precipitation (high)  More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)  Higher episodic streamflow (medium)  Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium) *Estimated from IPCC reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

40. Policy and Planning  Buildings and infrastructure  Image and marketing  Planning for those least able to cope  Iowa Association of Regional Councils (Iowa Councils of Government)  Buildings and infrastructure  Image and marketing  Planning for those least able to cope  Iowa Association of Regional Councils (Iowa Councils of Government) Climate Change is a Risk Multiplier

41. Buildings and Infrastructure  Building codes  Be proactive, ahead of the game  ISU has only architecture school in Iowa  Water supply  Preparation for droughts and floods  Water quality as well as quantity  Energy supply  Changing seasonal patterns  New sources?  Transportation  Innovation in public transit (fuels, engines, routes)  City planning to minimize travel  Building codes  Be proactive, ahead of the game  ISU has only architecture school in Iowa  Water supply  Preparation for droughts and floods  Water quality as well as quantity  Energy supply  Changing seasonal patterns  New sources?  Transportation  Innovation in public transit (fuels, engines, routes)  City planning to minimize travel

42. Image and Marketing  Ames has image of a progressive community  Educated citizenry  High citizen involvement  Environmental ethic  Attractive retirement community  Being progressive and sustainable  Attracts green companies and green jobs on the high technical end  Attracts progressive employees to ISU, NADC, IaDOT, private sector  Presents positive image to our many visitors  Ames has image of a progressive community  Educated citizenry  High citizen involvement  Environmental ethic  Attractive retirement community  Being progressive and sustainable  Attracts green companies and green jobs on the high technical end  Attracts progressive employees to ISU, NADC, IaDOT, private sector  Presents positive image to our many visitors

43. Planning for Those Least Able to Cope  Vulnerability to extreme weather  Floods  Droughts  Heat waves  Tornadoes, high winds  Engaging local churches  Dialog with Story County communities, watershed partners  Vulnerability to extreme weather  Floods  Droughts  Heat waves  Tornadoes, high winds  Engaging local churches  Dialog with Story County communities, watershed partners

44. For More Information  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu  Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/  For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu  Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/  For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/ Or just Google Eugene Takle