1. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Global Environmental Changes: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Lions Club, 27 Julyc 2006

2. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

3. 2006

4. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2006 2040

5. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Stabilization at 550 ppm

6. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100

9. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

11. “Nobody believes that the US economy can still be petroleum based in 2050, yet there is no national plan” Mark Kushner, Dean Iowa State University College of Engineering President’s Council Meeting 13 January 2006

12. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

16. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

18. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Associated Climate Changes  Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr  Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere  Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%  Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions  Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere  Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents  Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges  Snow cover decreased by 10%  Earlier flowering dates  Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

19. Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) ( http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

20. Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. Sea-surface temperature VV Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) V

21. Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. Sea-surface temperature VV Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) V

22. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

23. Tropical Weather Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

24. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG

25. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

26. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

27. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

28. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

29. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

30. 40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

31. Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).www.acia.uaf.edu

32. For the Midwest  Warming will be greater for winter than summer  Warming will be greater at night than during the day  A 3 o F rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave  Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950)  More precipitation  Likely more soil moisture in summer  More rain will come in intense rainfall events  Higher stream flow, more flooding

33. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Surprises  Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)  Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

36. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami

37. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System”? James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies: *Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m 2 *1 o C additional rise in global mean temperature

38. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963

39. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Imbalance = 1 Watt/m 2 in 2018

40. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

41. Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).www.acia.uaf.edu Projected sea-level rise In 21st century: 0.5 to 1.0 m

42. Climate Model Resolution global regional (land) regional (water) Only every second RCM grid point is shown in each direction

43. Application of Climate Change Scenarios  Space-heating/power demands  Crop yields  Soil carbon levels  Soil erosion  Bird migration patterns  Dairy cow milk production  Heat stress in beef cattle  Snowpack/reservoir performance  Crop pathogens  Habitat/climate for invasive species  Soil or aquatic ecosystems  Hardiness zones for trees  Freshwater availability  Lake-level changes  Recreation changes

44. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Summary  Climate change is real and we need to be doing something about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”  Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to develop adaptation strategies for the short term  The longer we wait, the fewer our options  Regional patterns of warming will be complicated  Climate surprises can’t be discounted  We need dialog between scientists and the private sector to develop both adaptation and mitigation strategies

45. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information  For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu