1. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: Use of Climate Science in Decision-making Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Faculty Director, University Honors Program Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Annual Conference Iowa State Extension Service Ames 10 October 2007

2. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

3. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline  Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide  Radiative forcing  Simulations of global climate and future climate change  Four components for addressing climate change  Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest: adaptation strategy  Climate information and forecasts for use in extension Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

4. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

5. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

6. IPCC Third Assessment Report

7. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2007 380 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

8. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2050 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

9. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

10. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ? Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

11. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

12. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

13. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

15. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

16. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

17. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m 2 in 2018

18. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94 928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3

25. Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).www.acia.uaf.edu

26. Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).www.acia.uaf.edu Projected sea-level rise In 21st century: 0.5 to 1.0 m

27. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

29. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

30. Climate Cold Warm Ice Volume 0 Antarctica Greenland

31. An exhibition of old and new photographs at the Swiss Alpine Museum in Bern documents the gradual disappearance of Switzerland's glaciers. The Rhone glacier with the Hotel Belvedere in the foreground and the Furka pass, Canton Valais circa 1906 and 2003 (Pictures: Gesellschaft fur okologische Forschung, Munich)

32. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

33. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

34. Natural cycles

35. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

36. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural Highly Likely Not Natural

37. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

38. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

39. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving

40. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption

41. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

42. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

44. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change  Mitigation policies: 2050-2100 –Example: reduction in GHG emissions  Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050 –Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive economic advantage  Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015 –Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified  Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100 –Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods, combination of both; drought and wildfire EST personal view

45. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years. Climate Adaptation(Short-Term) EST personal view

46. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More (~10%) precipitation (medium)  More variability of summer precipitation (high) –More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) –Higher episodic streamflow (medium) –Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

47. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Reasons Crop Yields Might Increase in the Midwest  Longer growing season  Warmer spring soil temperatures  Modest or no increase in summer daily maximum temperatures  Increase in nighttime temperatures  Reduced risk of late frost in spring or early frost in fall  More freeze-thaw cycles that will recharge soil moisture in winter

48. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Reasons Crop Yields Might Increase in the Midwest  More precipitation  More soil moisture  Higher dew-point temperatures reduces moisture stress  Higher CO 2 increased carbon uptake by crops  Higher CO 2 increases the water-use efficiency of crops

49. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Reasons Crop Yields Might Decrease in the Midwest  More precipitation extremes –More rain events bring heavy rain –More droughts –More floods  More over-wintering pests  More pathogens due to higher humidity  More vigorous weed growth

50. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

57. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University  Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK  Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada  Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA  Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy  Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA  René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada  Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA  Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA  Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA  Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA  Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

58. NOAA’s currently funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments teams

59. Proposed new Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

62. Tin and Seager

63. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Midwest Consortium for Climate Change (MiCCA) Mission To translate NOAA seasonal to inter- annual climate forecasts into decision- making tools for agriculture and to disseminate these products through the state extension services

64. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Summary  Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent with natural variations over the last 400,000 years  Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over half of the warming of the last 35 years  Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century  Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years  Recent trends and model projections should be used to develop adaptation strategies for the next 10 years EST personal view

65. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information  For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu  Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/  For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/ Or just Google Eugene Takle