WARNING MESSAGES AND EVACUATION Hugh Gladwin. Warning messages work when they warn people who then are able to take appropriate action given the constraints.

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Presentation transcript:

WARNING MESSAGES AND EVACUATION Hugh Gladwin

Warning messages work when they warn people who then are able to take appropriate action given the constraints of their situation

HURRICANE IVAN BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS Prepared by Dewberry and Davis, LLC for the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Wilmington and Mobile Districts July 2005

Intensification before landfall over day and night hours with four fairly well behaved hurricanes in terms of track forecast Katrina Andrew Opal Floyd

Boxes = night KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS Sunday Aug 28 Saturday Aug 27 Friday Aug 26 Katrina #13 10am CDT Friday 6 kt forward speed cat 2 tropical storm force winds Florida Panhandle Monday 8am cat 2 eye landfall Monday 11 am

Katrina #13 10am CDT Friday 6 kt forward speed cat 2 tropical storm force winds Florida Panhandle Monday 8am cat 2 eye landfall Monday 11 am

Boxes = night KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS Sunday Aug 28 Saturday Aug 27 Friday Aug 26 Katrina #14 4pm CDT Friday 7 kt forward speed cat 2 tropical storm force winds Monday 8am cat 3-4 eye landfall Monday pm

Katrina #14 4pm CDT Friday 7 kt forward speed cat 2 tropical storm force winds Monday 8am cat 3-4 eye landfall Monday pm

Boxes = night KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS Sunday Aug 28 Saturday Aug 27 Friday Aug 26 Katrina #17 10am CDT Saturday 6 kt forward speed cat 3 tropical storm force winds Monday 3am cat 4 eye landfall Monday 10 am

Katrina #17 10am CDT Saturday 6 kt forward speed cat 3 tropical storm force winds Monday 3am cat 4 eye landfall Monday 10 am

Boxes = night KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS Sunday Aug 28 Saturday Aug 27 Friday Aug 26 Katrina #22 7am CDT Sunday 10 kt forward speed cat 5 tropical storm force winds Sunday 10pm cat 4 eye over New Orleans Monday 11 am

Katrina #22 7am CDT Sunday 10 kt forward speed cat 5 tropical storm force winds Sunday 10pm cat 4 eye over New Orleans Monday 11 am

Boxes = night KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS Sunday Aug 28 Saturday Aug 27 Friday Aug 26 Katrina #22 7am CDT Sunday 10 kt forward speed cat 5 tropical storm force winds Sunday 10pm cat 4 eye over New Orleans Monday 11 am

Boxes = night ANDREW

Boxes = night OPAL Monday August Tuesday August Wednesday August Opal #21 4pm CDT Monday 5 kt forward speed cat 1 tropical storm force winds Thursday 5 am cat 2 eye landfall Thursday 2 pm

Opal #21 4pm CDT Monday 5 kt forward speed cat 1 tropical storm force winds Thursday 5 am cat 2 eye landfall Thursday 2 pm

Boxes = night OPAL Monday August Tuesday August Wednesday August Opal #24 10 am CDT Tuesday 8 kt forward speed cat 1 tropical storm force winds Wednesday 10 pm cat 1 eye landfall Thursday 5 am

Opal #24 10 am CDT Tuesday 8 kt forward speed cat 1 tropical storm force winds Wednesday 10 pm cat 1 eye landfall Thursday 5 am

Boxes = night OPAL Monday August Tuesday August Wednesday August Opal #26 10pm CDT Tuesday 20 kt forward speed cat 3 tropical storm force winds Wednesday 10 am cat 3 eye landfall Wednesday 6 pm

Opal #26 10pm CDT Tuesday 20 kt forward speed cat 3 tropical storm force winds Wednesday 10 am cat 3 eye landfall Wednesday 6 pm

Boxes = night OPAL Monday August Tuesday August Wednesday August Opal #27 4am CDT Wednesday 17 kt forward speed cat 3 tropical storm force winds Thursday 11 am cat 3 eye landfall Thursday 8 pm

Boxes = night FLOYD

WARNING MESSAGES AND EVACUATION Hugh Gladwin