HWT Experimental Warning Program: History & Successes Darrel Kingfield (CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.

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Presentation transcript:

HWT Experimental Warning Program: History & Successes Darrel Kingfield (CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma

The Experimental Warning Program (EWP) Forecasters Researchers Technology Specialists Trainers & Social Scientists Goals: NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, ) Evaluate new techniques, observation systems, and applications at the “warning scale” (0-2 hour time period). 2) Gather feedback for product improvement, best practices training, and evidence of relevancy in NWS operations.

EWP Technology NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) AWIPS-1: AWIPS-2: 2012-present 10 AWIPS-2 workstations Can replicate any NWS forecast office Satellite Broadcast Network Access Every operational product available to the NWS Situational Awareness Display 2 TVs 4 monitors Benefit: An analog environment of a NWS office that a forecaster is familiar with while providing a head start to operational implementation.

Receiving Forecaster Feedback NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Blogging Daily/Weekly Surveys Daily/Weekly Debriefs Pre-warning decision Making thoughts and Images in real-time. Strengths/Weaknesses of the applications evaluated. Dedicated face-to-face time between forecasters and developers on the evaluated products. Flexible metrics of data capture allow investigators to receive quality feedback on their terms while providing transparency in the evaluation process.

Past Successful Initiatives: NSSL 3DVAR NSSL 3DVAR Reflectivity and radial velocity from nearby WSR-88D radars blended with 12km model background Four floating 200x200 analysis domains 1km horizontal resolution, 500m vertical resolution (31 total levels) every 5 min. NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, DVAR = A storm-scale data assimilation system blending observational and numerical model data 500 km 2 Radar Domain 200 km 2 Analysis Domain Goal: Synthesize storm dynamics in a manner that is quick and easy for forecasters to interrogate.

Past Successful Initiatives: NSSL 3DVAR NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Multi-year experiment allowed for integration of feedback for re-evaluation More Info: Calhoun et al. (2014) - AWIPS-2 Products Evaluated Bold = Evaluated Both Years 2011 Downdraft Track Downdraft Composite Simulated Reflectivity Updraft Track Updraft Volume Updraft Max Vorticity 2D Wind Fields 2012 Storm-top Divergence Updraft Helicity Above : AWIPS-2 display of the NSSL 3DVAR 1km wind field displayed as both barbs and as a colored image for a damaging wind event on 14 June 2012.

Past Successful Initiatives: MR/MS Evaluated for last 8 years Multiple iterations of product development Gained NWS support and trust System Requirements & Evaluation Committee Top 10 implementation candidate from all NWS regions Implementation into AWIPS-2 operations this year NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Single Radar Multi-Radar AWIPS-2 Menu Exploits areas of overlapping radars to generate 3D cube of reflectivity and shear products and derivatives 2 min. output – 500m-1km resolution What is Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor? EWP History

Current Initiative: Earth Networks (ENI) Total Lightning Objective: Does ENI total lightning and derivative products have value in warning operations? NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Single Radar Cloud-Top Cooling Geostationary Lightning Mapper First EWP public/private sector data evaluation experiment 18 NWS Forecasters + + Six two-hour scenarios of varying convective modes Three tiers of data available for storm interrogation Experiment Design A blend of meteorology & social science

ENI Total Lightning: Results & Future Work NASA Task Load Index Year 2: Spring 2015 NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Data ProvidedMean Workload Radar Only55 Radar + Total Lightning 52 Radar + Total Lightning + Derivatives 54 Assess perceived workload of a new task or product Interpretation 0 = No Stress ; 100 = High Stress Similar workloads observed Case meteorology plays larger role Integration of forecaster feedback into a renewed product set for real-time evaluation Above: ENI total lighting and Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts

Summary Planned Future Initiatives: Continued work with the Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment (PARISE) Exploring the role of rapid-scan radar data on human factors and forecaster conceptual models GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities Evaluate proposed algorithms and tools to support the GOES-R mission Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) into AWIPS-2 Hazard Services FACETs, decision support services, and human factors experiments Continued work with Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) Program Forecaster use and evaluation of a new paradigm for flash flood prediction NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, NOAA’s HWT has a record of success and will continue to provide a mechanism for the evaluation of new products and services to meet the needs of the National Weather Service. The Path Ahead