The Time-Predictable Recurrence Model The original models (Shimazaki & Nakata 1980) Complications and pitfalls (Thatcher 1984) Modern examples Relevance.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The Community Geodetic Model (CGM): What is it and how does it relate to studies of lithospheric rheology? Jessica Murray, David Sandwell, and Rowena Lohman.
Advertisements

GPS & Seismic Studies of Episodic Tremor & Slip on the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica Timothy H Dixon MARGINS Lecturer February/March 2009.
GE177b- Objectives Introduce a variety of techniques to describe ‘quantitatively’ deformation of the lithosphere and fault slip history. Introduce.
Charles DeMets Dept. of Geology & Geophysics Univ. of Wisconsin- Madison Subduction tectonics: Earthquake cycle and long-term deformation Acknowledgments.
Amphibious Monitoring of Earthquake Cycle Deformation at Subduction Zones Kelin Wang, Earl Davis, Herb Dragert Pacific Geoscience Centre, Geological Survey.
Subduuction Zone Observatory: Faulting and Deformation Jeff Freymueller Geophysical Institute and Dept. of Geology and Geophysics University of Alaska.
The power of intuition (Selwyn’s that is). Selwyn’s career goal #__: What does the asthenosphere have to do with earthquakes, crustal motions, and mantle.
Lecture 7. Few points about earthquakes Some basic facts and questions Great Chilean earthquake /Valdivia earthquake / of 1960 (Mw=9.5) and recent Tahoku.
Active Folding within the L.A. Basin with a focus on: Argus et al. (2005), Interseismic strain accumulation and anthropogenic motion in metropolitan Los.
Subduction Zone Geodynamics:
Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Deformation Through the Seismic Cycle Jeff Freymueller University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Long and short term deformation along the San Andreas Fault Examples of issues of spatial and temporal scale of interest. Also indicates rate of deformation.
A New Approach To Paleoseismic Event Correlation Glenn Biasi and Ray Weldon University of Nevada Reno Acknowledgments: Tom Fumal, Kate Scharer, SCEC and.
Lecture 23 Paleoseismology San Andreas fault II Not given in 2008.
NEW MADRID: A dying fault? GPS seismology geology Heat flow Recent data, taken together, suggest that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down.
Observing an Earthquake Cycle Within a Decade
Geodetic monitoring of subduction zones Some idea of the kinematics of the subduction interface can be inferred from surface deformation measured from.
Time-dependent seismic hazard maps for the New Madrid seismic zone and Charleston, South Carolina areas James Hebden Seth Stein Department of Earth and.
Ge 277- ‘From rock mechanics to seismotectonics’ Objective of seminar Review major results form rock mechanics laboratory experiments and discuss how these.
 ss=  * +(a-b) ln(V/V * ) a-b > 0 stable sliding a-b < 0 slip is potentially unstable Correspond to T~300 °C For Quartzo- Feldspathic rocks Stationary.
NA-Pa Plate Boundary Wilson [1960] USGS Prof. Paper 1515.
IV. The seismic cycle IV. 1 Conceptual and kinematic models IV.2 Comparison with observations IV.3 Interseismic strain IV.4 Postseismic deformation IV.5.
Paleoseismic and Geologic Data for Earthquake Simulations Lisa B. Grant and Miryha M. Gould.
“Possibilities for offshore geodesy” Questions of importance for understanding S.Z. deformation offshore and tools that might be applied to address them.
SISMA Seismic Information System for Monitoring and Alert Galileian Plus Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Milano, Italy Politecnico di.
Thailand Training Program in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings, May 2006 Forecasting Earthquakes.
IV. The seismic cycle Taiwan Lab.
Earth Science Applications of Space Based Geodesy DES-7355 Tu-Th 9:40-11:05 Seminar Room in 3892 Central Ave. (Long building) Bob Smalley Office: 3892.
Continental Faults at Depth: the roots of the debate Ge Summary: How continents deform is a much debated question. Whether surface strain is localized.
Kerry Sieh TO Annual Meeting 13 November 2007 Kerry Sieh TO Annual Meeting 13 November 2007 Soft corals lifted about 10 cm during the September 2007 earthquakes.
In the past ~15 years we’ve learned a lot and have new questions: Paleoseismology shows that continental intraplate seismicity often migrates, is episodic,
Interseismic deformation with aseismic stress-dependent fault slip Eric A Hetland, Mark Simons, Ravi Kanda, Sue Owen TO brown-bag – 03 April 2007 a very.
What can geodesy tell us about rifting & subduction?
The deformation in the Plate Boundary zones Shear Zone : San Andreas - Frédéric Flerit.
How Faulting Keeps Crust Strong? J. Townend & M.D. Zoback, 2000 Geology.
Attempting to Reconcile Holocene And Long-Term Seismicity Rates in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Mark Zoback – Stanford University NASA World Wind looking.
Using GPS and InSAR to study tectonics, deformation, and earthquakes GPS displacements, velocities (and transients) InSAR displacements.
Yuehua Zeng & Wayne Thatcher U. S. Geological Survey
Modelling Postseismic Deformation: Examples from Manyi, Tibet and L’Aquila, Italy Marcus Bell COMET Student Meeting 2010 Supervisors: B. Parsons and P.
Elizabeth H. Hearn, UBC, Vancouver, CANADA in collaboration with Semih Ergintav, Marmara Research Centre, Gebze, TURKEY Robert Reilinger, MIT, Cambridge.
Pelatihan : Techniques in Active Tectonic Study Juni 20-Juli 2, 2013 Instruktur: Prof. J Ramon Arrowsmith (JRA) Dari Arizona State University (ASU) - US.
The influence of the geometry of the San Andreas fault system on earthquakes in California Qingsong Li and Mian Liu Geological Sciences, 101 Geol. Bldg.,
Clustering and Scattering of Intraplate Earthquakes in the NMSZ and Other Regions: Preliminary Results From Geodynamic Modeling Qingsong Li Lunar and Planetary.
Seismic and Aseismic Slip During Hydraulic Fracturing Stephen Perry.
Geodetic Deformation, Seismicity and Fault Friction Ge Sensitivity of seismicity to stress perturbations, implications for earthquakes nucleation.
Forecasting Earthquakes
1 Ivan Wong Principal Seismologist/Vice President Seismic Hazards Group, URS Corporation Oakland, CA Uncertainties in Characterizing the Cascadia Subduction.
David Schmidt Ray Weldon Reed Burgette Randy Krogstad Haiying Gao
Forecasting Earthquakes ・ Difference between Predictions and Forecasts ・ Earlier Efforts in Earthquake Prediction ・ Long-term Probability Estimates.
A Post-Loma Prieta Progress Report on Earthquake Triggering by a Continuum of Deformations Presented By Joan Gomberg.
-Liu and Rice (2005), Aseismic slip transients emerge spontaneously in three-dimensional rate and state modeling of subduction earthquake sequences, JGR.
SUSHI II Long-term stress modelling: Implications for large earthquake forecasting Suleyman S. Nalbant, John McCloskey, Shane Murphy, Nuno Simao and Tony.
Earthquakes and crustal Deformation - Objectives of class- Introduce a variety of techniques to describe ‘quantitatively’ deformation of the lithosphere.
EART 118 Seismotectonics MWF D250 9:30-10:40 am; Th D250 2:00-4:00 pm Prof.: Thorne Lay, C382 E&MS, Office Hours 11:00-12:00 MWF TA: Lingling Ye, Office.
Conceptual model on how to relate geological structures to co-seismic deformation King et al., JGR 1988 and Stein et al., JGR 1988 Seminar 1, October,
Earthquakes and friction laws Victoria Stevens Scholz 1998.
Creep, compaction and the weak rheology of major faults Sleep & Blanpied, 1992, Nature Segall & Rice, 1995 Seminar for Ge Jan. Shengji Wei.
GeoFEM Kinematic Earthquake Cycle Modeling in the Japanese Islands Hirahara, K. (1), H. Suito (1), M. Hyodo (1) M. Iizuka (2) and H. Okuda (3) (1) Nagoya.
Seth Stein Northwestern University Timothy Dixon University of Miami
Rock mechanics view of a seismogenic fault zone
Ge 277- ‘From rock mechanics to seismotectonics’
Velocities in ITRF – not appropriate for interpretation
Coupling at subduction zones Background reading: Pacheco, Sykes, Scholz (1993) Hyndman, Yamano, Oleskevich (1997) Carl Tape November 9, 2007 Thanks.
Earthquakes and crustal Deformation - Objectives of class-
Behavior of the Sunda Megathrust
On the relation between Geodetic strain, Seismicity and fault frictional properties Nepal Sumatra Taiwan.
Creager, Wech, Vidale, Melbourne
Creager, Wech, Vidale, Melbourne
Creager, Wech, Vidale, Melbourne
Presentation transcript:

The Time-Predictable Recurrence Model The original models (Shimazaki & Nakata 1980) Complications and pitfalls (Thatcher 1984) Modern examples Relevance to Indonesia

Schematic Recurrence Models Periodic Time-Predictable Slip-Predictable

Japanese Examples historic

Japanese Examples historic C14 dated marine terraces

Japanese Examples historicC14 dated corals C14 dated marine terraces

Japanese Examples Interplate (megathrust) Intraplate (“continental wedge”); some permanent deformation

Complications Postseismic transients –Short-term (few years) –Long-term (decades) Permanent deformation –Coseismic –Interseismic

Postseismic & Permanent Deformation Not well constrained for most megathrust systems Indonesia displays several of these effects Updip fault splaying ? Aseismic downdip slip Asthenosphere relaxation

Displacements relative to South America before and after the Mw Peru Earthquake (Perfettini et al, JGR, 2005)

(Perfettini et al, 2005) The persistent seaward motion of ARE implies a significant ‘viscous’ contribution to postseismic deformation. We deduce: V i /V f = 1.7, hence T M = 0.2 T  20yr and t r = 3.7 yr

PHUK LEWK UMLH SAMP   Time evolution of postseismic displacements is consistent with rate-strengthening frictional sliding. 5 days 90 days 30 days Chlieh et al, 2007

Postseismic deformation over 11 months

Bulasat Simanganya Years (AD) Elevation relative to modern sea level ~1370~ & 1833 Paleoseismic records Slip predictableTime- predictable or neither?

Bulasat Simanganya Years (AD) Elevation relative to modern sea level ~1370~ & 1833 Probably closer to Time-predictable

Wrightwood Example No time- or slip- predictability on the scale of single RIs May have multi- cycle time- predictability May not be representative of SAF as a whole (Weldon et al. 2004)

Summary Monitoring future postseismic deformation through cGPS will yield more complete picture of the seismic cycle Complications to model are important for deeper understanding, but don’t affect the first-order model fit More important: compare several locations along the megathrust