EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) 12-14 October 2011 - Lisbon, Portugal 1 Lessons learned from disaggregating population data by using.

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Presentation transcript:

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 1 Lessons learned from disaggregating population data by using different data sources. Radoslaw Jablonski Central Statistical Office of Poland

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 2 Agenda Aim of the project Data types used in project Test area Review of used method for solving the disaggregation problem Conclusions

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 3 Aim of the project  Aggregate demographic data using the top- down approach for the entire country.  Deaggregate demographic data using the bottom-up approach for the entire coutry.

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 4 Data types used in project. 1)Bottom-up method: Address points data set with population form Census Grid data set series 1x1km ( GRID_ETRS89_LAEA_1K ) 2)Top-down method: Enumeration area districts with population from Census High resolution soil sealing layer for the year 2006.

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 5 Test area Subregion Piotrkowski was chosen for testing the bottom-up and top- down method. Municipalities: Cities – (4) Rural communes – (42) Urban section in a rural- urban commune – (7) Rural section in a rural- urban commune – (7)

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 6

7 Top-down method - assumption 1.Using the smallest statistical regions in order to minimize error of the spatial distribution.

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 8 Top-down method - assumption 2.Using the SSL to increase the accuracy of address points distribution.

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 9

10 Top-down and bottom-up methods – in details

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 11

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 12 What can we do, in terms of Grid, to avoid ‘holes’ in the population? We can at best spread a population equally from over one or multiple districts, which are contain in a grid cel. SSL will not be treated as the only determinant of population assignment for grid but may be at best used as a „weight”.

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 13 Quality indicator - verifying the accuracy of the estimating population method. Having a set of reference data (the actual population from points of the address assigned for 1km grid squares) we can determine the error of tested top-down method. quality indicator = absolute value(An – Bn)/max(An,Bn) where: An - the value of the population in the n-th grid cell reference set od data A (bottom-up method) Bn - the value of the population in the n-th grid cell with the values of the calculated B (top-down method)

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 14

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 15 Conclusions! CLC data can be usefull as a main factor in determination less populated area. This factor helps you reduce noise in: rural communes and rural section in a rural-urban commune. In this way will allow us to achieve better results in the calculation of the estimated values.

EUROPEAN FORUM FOR GEOSTATISTICS CONFERENCE (EFGS) October Lisbon, Portugal 16 Thank you for your attention. Radoslaw Jablonski Central Statistical Office of Poland