Validation/Reconstruction of the Sunspot Number Record, 1841-2007 E.W. Cliver Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, Hanscom AFB, MA.

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Presentation transcript:

Validation/Reconstruction of the Sunspot Number Record, E.W. Cliver Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, Hanscom AFB, MA L. Svalgaard Easy Tool Kit, Inc., Houston, TX IUGG July 2007

Sunspot Number (SSN) Applications - Solar Dynamo - Space Weather/Climate - Cosmic Ray Modulation - Climate Change

Two SSN Series R INT : (SIDC/ROB) R G : (Hoyt & Schatten, 1998)

SSN Dec HF Ellis (1898) SSN correlated with daily range of geomagnetic elements

S R Ionospheric Current System (Torta et al., 1997) S R at Hobarton (1848)

Wolf (1875) used the SSN-daily range relationship to adjust the SSN for years before 1848 Rudolf Wolf

Step 1 Show that over extended periods of time (decades, centuries) constant, stable relationships exist between rY at stations such as Niemegk and Honolulu that are widely separated in longitude and latitude.

Step 2 Link together observations of the regular variation observed at long-term stations (normalizing to Niemegk and using Oslo to bridge the gaps for early years) to obtain the variation of S R since 1840

Step 3 Relate average rY to R INT ( & F 10.7 )

The daily range rY is highly correlated with R INT & F 10.7 at all phases of the sunspot cycle Step 3 (continued)

Use the R INT vs. rY relationship to obtain a new SSN series back to 1840 Step 4

Step 5 Obtain correction factors for each cycle for the International and Group SSN series

Provisional SSN Series: Cycles 10 & 11 comparable to 22 & 23

Work in Progress - Strengthen 1840-present series - Extend before Determine causes of jumps in 1893 & Determine effect of Earth’s decreasing dipole (~10% since 1840)