ITS-Conference Connecting societies and markets Perspectives of Telecommunications Policy State Secretary Dr. Alfred Tacke 5 September 2004

Mobile growth in Germany Source: RegTP Subscriber (Thousands) Penetration Subscribers Penetration

Internet growth in Germany Source: RegTP, EITO Mill. Internet users

Source: RegTP Dynamic market growth 44,2 48,1 56,2 59,9 61,3 63, Billion € Market volume

Market development Sharp price cuts Wider product range Growing market shares of competitors Innovations Higher productivity of incumbent

Source: RegTP Falling phone call prices minimum tariff for a national call (up to Jan 04)

Cent / Min daytime after 18 h Source: RegTP Falling Internet prices minimum tariff for internet-by-call (up to Jan 04)

Source: EITO/ TNS Infratest 3/2004 DSL-Penetration Europe: Number of DSL connections per 1,000 inhabitants, 2003

Development of long-term outlook Regulation is not objective, but instrument Objective remains „Workable Competition“ Cease regulation when competition law is just as good or better at solving problem

Uncertain forecasting Forecasts not easy in dynamic markets “Presumption of knowledge” punished by market Intelligent regulation needed to utilise potential for growth Regulation causes costs: therefore regular cost-benefit analysis needed

European challenges and opportunities Content gap (lack of demand-oriented content for broadband applications; further potential for public supply, digital rights management) Convergence (e.g. VoIP, fixed/mobile, broadcasting/ communications, new business models, custom-tailored solutions) Asian dominance (mobile applications, VoIP, software, broadband etc.) European strengths (high share of internet users and B2B market places, intense competition in telecoms sector...)