Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: December 3, 2015 California School Boards Association 0.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
LAO Californias Economic and Budget Outlook Legislative Analysts Office
Advertisements

Irelands Economic outlook David Duffy. The Outlook Dependent on world trade growth If forecast recovery materialises then Irish growth will improve in.
LAO California’s Fiscal Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office California Association of School Business Officials CBO Symposium November 15,
UCLA Budget Outlook FY Presentation by Steven A. Olsen Vice Chancellor, Finance and Budget November 18, 2003.
S TATE B UDGET U PDATE More Big Challenges Ahead October 2014.
Sonoma County Junior College District Budget Update Presented to the Board of Trustees August 9, 2011.
Scott Nicol Andrew Burg.  Financing Government Debt  Foreign Government Borrowing  Tax Payer Receipts  Issuance of Government Debt.
Budget & Economic Forecast NOVEMBER 2013 MINNESOTA MANAGEMENT & BUDGET MMB.STATE.MN.US December 5, 2013.
The School Finance Outlook for and Beyond Legislative Revenue Office April 2010.
LAO California’s Budget Outlook for Michael Cohen Legislative Analyst’s Office April 23,
Health Care Forecasting Conference James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director Congressional Budget Office February 25, 2010.
Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook Fall 2003 Craig Infanger Larry Jones.
Health Care Forecasting Conference James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director for Health Policy Congressional Budget Office February 21, 2008.
Breaking Down the Numbers.  Personal Income Taxes for and are $10 billion higher than projected by the Governor’s Jan 2011 no-tax increase.
California Budget Sandra M. Emerson. California Budget Prospects General Fund in the red for next five years.
Health Economics Unit Budget of the US Government Fiscal Year 2000 l October 1, 1999 to September 30, 2000 l Total Government Spending is 29% of.
LAO Fiscal Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office November 27,
Faculty Leadership Conference Revenue Forecast Report and Budget Update Bernard M. Hannon Senior Assoc Commissioner & CFOApril 23, 2010.
The State Budget Surplus: Fact or Fiction The State Budget Surplus: Fact or Fiction Rotary Club of Dallas January 24, 2007 Eva DeLuna Castro,
1Office of Governor Janice K. Brewer1 The State Budget FY 2010 and FY 2011.
CCCSFAAA December 10, General Fund Tax Revenues 1.5% 5.1% 5.4% 7.3% 5.4%
JASON SCHROCK ECONOMIST COLORADO LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL DECEMBER 7, The Economy and the State Budget: Tough Times.
V irginia’s E conomic and Budget Climate Richard D. Brown Secretary of Finance November 9, 2009.
LAO CBO Hot Topics 101: State Budget Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office CASBO 2012 Annual Conference April 11,
Initiative 601: Experience and Context Presentation to the House Finance Committee by the Office of Financial Management Victor Moore, Director Irv Lefberg,
State Economic Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: California Association of Chief Business Officers April 3,
LAO The State Education Budget Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented at: CASBO 2011 Annual Conference April 7, 2011.
LAO California’s Budget Situation Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: California School Boards Association December 4, 2009.
Lynwood Unified School District First Interim Financial Report Board Presentation December 13, 2011.
FY 2014 Budget / Actual Performance through November 2013 John W. Lawson Chief Financial Officer January 9, 2014.
California Community Mental Health Revenue Update California Institute for Behavioral Health Solutions (CIBHS) County Behavioral Health Fiscal Leadership.
LAO California’s Fiscal Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office Jennifer Kuhn November 17,
LAO Propositions 30 and 38 Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: Alameda County Office of Education September 12, 2012.
Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: November 19, 2015 California Association of School Business Officials, CBO Symposium 0.
LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office October 4,
Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: November 20, 2014 California Association of School Business Officials, CBO Symposium 0.
Jefferson City Revenue Forecast Staff Analysis. Accuracy in Estimates Important to Make Best Use of Tax Payer Money.
LAO The State Budget and Educational Funding Mac Taylor Legislative Analyst April 17,
LAO California’s Fiscal Outlook Jennifer Kuhn Director, K-12 Education Legislative Analyst’s Office April 15,
LAO State Budget Update Jennifer Kuhn Legislative Analyst’s Office November 21,
Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: February 19, 2016 California County Superintendents Educational Services Association.
Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: December 15, 2014 California School Boards Association, Annual Education Conference 0.
State Budget Update Legislative Analyst’s Office C.A.S.H. Fall Conference October 15,
1 Overview of Mineral Taxes in Colorado State Severance Tax and Federal Mineral Lease Revenue House and Senate Finance Committees Marc Carey and Jason.
MICHAEL WOOD PENNSYLVANIA BUDGET AND POLICY CENTER DECEMBER 2, at a Glance: How is Pennsylvania Faring So Far?
BOARD OF EDUCATION PITTSBURG UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT FIRST INTERIM BUDGET REPORT DECEMBER 11, 2013 Presented by: Enrique E Palacios, Deputy Superintendent.
June 19, ADOPTED BUDGET.  Governor’s January budget proposal  Governor’s May revision  PUHSD’s Budget  Built upon the May revision.
CITY OF MENIFEE, CA. FY General Fund Mid-year Review Other Funds Mid-year Review National, State and Local economic conditions FY Budget Planning.
Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: April 14, 2016 California Association of School Business Officers.
FY 2012 General Fund 5-Year Forecast Presentation to the Board of County Commissioners Multnomah County Budget Office November 9, 2010.
Recapture: Purchasing Attendance Credits vs. Detachment
Governor’s budget proposal For California Fiscal year
Tustin Unified School District
EADM 284 State Budget Summary
The School Finance Outlook for and Beyond
Budget Update nd Interim Assumptions
11/26/2018 A Rainy Day Ahead? What A Recession Or Bear Market Could Mean To The Golden State Gabriel Petek, CFA U.S. States Group / U.S. Public Finance.
Board of Trustees Meeting September 14, 2015
Recoveries from Financial Recessions
Texas Transportation Funding
Budget and Economic Forecast
Board Budget Update January 15, 2015.
First Interim Financial Report
California’s Fiscal Outlook
The Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook
California Budget & Propositions
The Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook
May Revision CSAC.
Board Study Session on Student Services Funding
California’s Fiscal Outlook
Presentation transcript:

Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: December 3, 2015 California School Boards Association 0

1 State’s Fiscal Outlook

State Revenues Up in and General Fund and Education Protection Account Combined (In Millions) 2

State’s General Fund Condition Healthy in Estimates Under Main Scenario (In Millions) 3

All Big State Revenue Sources Grow Throughout Forecast Period Big Three Revenues Under Main Scenario (In Billions) 4

Annual Rainy Day Deposits Become Smaller Each Year of Forecast Period Estimates Under Main Scenario (Dollars in Billions) 5

Under Main Scenario, Operating Surpluses Each Year of Period (In Billions) 6

Debt-Service Ratio Expected to Remain Around 5 Percent Percent of General Fund Revenues and Transfers Spent on Debt Service 7

8 Education Outlook

Minimum Guarantee Up From Budget Act Estimates (Dollars in Millions) 9

Minimum Guarantee Up From Budget Act Estimates (Dollars in Millions) 10

$3.6 Billion Increase in Proposition 98 Funding Projected for LAO Main Scenario (In Millions) 11

Minimum Guarantee Almost $10 Billion Higher in Than LAO Main Scenario (In Billions) 12

Increases in Guarantee Borne Disproportionately by Local Property Tax Change From Prior Year (In Billions) 13

Assessed Property Values Grow Moderately Throughout Forecast Period Percent Change From Prior Year 14

Local Control Funding Grows More Quickly During First Half of Forecast Period Percent of Target Funded 15

 : Highly Sensitive  : Highly Insensitive  : Somewhat Sensitive  Remainder of Period: Somewhat Sensitive Effect of State Revenues on Minimum Guarantee Changes Throughout Period 16

17 Other Outlook Scenarios

Current Economic Expansion Already Among Longest in U.S. History Data Since

Slowdown Scenario: Smaller Operating Surpluses (In Billions) 19

Recession Scenario: Reserves Cover Operating Deficits Until (In Billions) 20

Comparing Proposition 98 Minimum Guarantee Under Three Scenarios (In Billions) 21

lao.ca.gov 22