ישראל אומן המרכז לחקר הרציונליות האוניברסיטה העברית, ירושלים פורום הסטודנטים לכלכלה ח"י בטבת תשע"ב באוניברסיטת תל-אביב (12.01.12) כלכלה התנהגותית: כהנמן.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Ultimatum Game Two players bargain (anonymously) to divide a fixed amount between them. P1 (proposer) offers a division of the “pie” P2 (responder) decides.

Advertisements

1 Game Theory. 2 Definitions Game theory -- formal way to analyze interactions among a group of rational agents behaving strategically Agents – players.

Regret & decision making What is regret? It’s –a negative emotion –Stems from a comparison of outcomes there is a choice that we did not take. had we decided.

1 Intuitive Irrationality: Reasons for Unreason. 2 Epistemology Branch of philosophy focused on how people acquire knowledge about the world Descriptive.

Fundamentals of Political Science Dr. Sujian Guo Professor of Political Science San Francisco State Unversity

GAME THEORY By Ben Cutting & Rohit Venkat. Game Theory: General Definition  Mathematical decision making tool  Used to analyze a competitive situation.

Game Theory “Life must be understood backward, but … it must be lived forward.” - Soren Kierkegaard James Bednar.

What is a Player? מה זה שחקן? Bob Aumann ישראל אומן The Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities June 10, 2010 כ"ח סיון תש"ע.

Certainty Equivalent and Stochastic Preferences June 2006 FUR 2006, Rome Pavlo Blavatskyy Wolfgang Köhler IEW, University of Zürich.

UNIT II: The Basic Theory Zero-sum Games Nonzero-sum Games Nash Equilibrium: Properties and Problems Bargaining Games Review Midterm3/21 3/7.

The Art and Science of Economic Analysis

Behavioral Economics Chapter 30. What Is Behavioral Economics? The study of choices actually made by economic decision makers in an effort to assess the.

Critical Listening Does what the other person says make sense?

Decision-making II judging the likelihood of events.

UNIT II: The Basic Theory Zero-sum Games Nonzero-sum Games Nash Equilibrium: Properties and Problems Bargaining Games Review Midterm3/23 3/2.

עיקרון אי הוודאות פרדוקס: במרחב דו ממדי תמיד יעילות של IFM.

© 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.1 Chapter 1: Economics and Economic Reasoning Prepared by: Kevin Richter, Douglas College Charlene.

Bounded Rationality: The Two Cultures Konstantinos Katsikopoulos Max Planck Institute for Human Development Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition.

UNIT II: The Basic Theory Zero-sum Games Nonzero-sum Games Nash Equilibrium: Properties and Problems Bargaining Games Review Midterm3/19 3/5.

Introduction: Thinking Like an Economist 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 12 The Logic of Individual Choice: The Foundation of Supply and Demand The theory of economics.

7 7 Output, Price, and Profit: The Importance of Marginal Analysis Business is a good game...You keep score with money. NOLAN BUSHNELL, FOUNDER OF ATARI.

Economics for Leaders The Ultimatum Game. Proposal Selection Form Proposer Identification Code __________________ Circle a proposal: 9/1 8/2 7/3 6/4 5/5.

CHAPTERS 8 Utility and Demand

Proposal Selection Form Proposer Identification Code __________________ Circle a proposal: 19/1 18/2 17/3 16/4 15/5 14/6 13/7 12/8 11/9 10/10 9/11 8/12.

Industrial Organization and Experimental Economics Huanren(Warren) Zhang.

Lecture 2 in Contracts Employment Contracts This lecture studies how those who create and administer organizations design the incentives and institutional.

Bargaining Whoever offers to another a bargain of any kind, proposes to do this. Give me that which I want, and you shall have this which you want …; and.

Lecture 2 Economic Actors and Organizations: Motivation and Behavior.

What is Economics? Chapter 18.

© 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved.1 Chapter 1: Economics and Economic Reasoning Prepared by: Kevin Richter, Douglas College Charlene.

Bob Aumann Center for the Study of Rationality The Hebrew University, Jerusalem Rule Rationality vs. Act Rationality.

Yisrael Aumann Center for the Study of Rationality The Hebrew University, Jerusalem Rule Rationality vs. Act Rationality.

SES SECONDARY 3. 2 PERSPECTIVES: 1. CLASSICAL ECONOMISTS Stigler: “when self-interest and ethical values with wide verbal allegiances are in conflict,

PowerPoint Slides prepared by: Andreea CHIRITESCU Eastern Illinois University Ten Principles of Economics 1 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved.

Experiments on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods Misread as Evidence of Myopic Loss Aversion Ganna Pogrebna June 30, 2007 Experiments on Risk Taking and.

Lecture 7 Course Summary The tools of strategy provide guiding principles that that should help determine the extent and nature of your professional interactions.

Practice session 3 תחביר ממשי ( קונקרטי ) ותחביר מופשט ( אבסטרקטי ) שיטות חישוב : Applicative & Normal Evaluation Partial Evaluation.

Practice session 3.  תחביר ממשי ( קונקרטי ) ותחביר מופשט ( אבסטרקטי )  שיטות חישוב : Applicative & Normal Evaluation.

Basic Principles of Economics Rögnvaldur J. Sæmundsson January

Consumer Behavior 06 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Ten Principles of Economics. 1. Trade off -between efficiency and equity Efficiency - the property of society getting the most it can from its scarce.

The Logic of Individual Choice: The Foundation of Supply and Demand 10 The Logic of Individual Choice: The Foundation of Supply and Demand The theory of.

Game theoretical analysis of hospital expense claiming strategy under global budgeting policy Reporter ： Juin-Yang Wang Advisor ： Cheng-Han Wu Date ： January.

The Present Simple The Present Simple USE 1: Repeated Actions פעולות שחוזרות על עצמן USE 2: Facts or Generalizations עובדות והכללות The Usages of.

Rule Rationality vs. Act Rationality Robert Aumann The Center for Rationality The Hebrew University, Jerusalem The Fifth European Conference On Complex.

Neuroeconomics Jaeseung Jeong, Ph.D

Explanation of pages in STAR Steps to Academic Reading English Level 3 Identifying Subjects, Verbs, and Complements.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright  2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. ECONOMICS AND ECONOMIC REASONING Chapter 1.

Behavioral Issues in Multiple Criteria Decision Making Jyrki Wallenius, Aalto University School of Business Summer School on Behavioral Operational Research:

Toward An Understanding of Self-Organization of Markets Yougui Wang Department of Systems Science, School of Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing.

PRINCIPLES OF PERSUASION: MOTIVATING AGREEMENT International Negotiation Strategy: Theory and Practice Spring 2011 Professor Jasper Kim April 13, 2011.

Ten Principles of Economics 1. Economy – “oikonomos” (Greek) –“One who manages a household” Household - many decisions –Allocate scarce resources Ability,

Game Theory By Ben Cutting & Rohit Venkat.

Behavioral Economics Chapter 30.

Proposal Selection Form

Psychology and Personal Finance

Behavioral Economics A branch of economics that studies the psychology of decision-making to explain consumer behavior.

Behavioral economics Chapter 30

Examples of Laboratory Experiments

Rule Rationality vs. Act Rationality

כלכלה התנהגותית: כהנמן מול סמית

Chapter 18 Section 1.

Economic systems Analysis Who makes the economic decisions?

Ch 3: Social Beliefs & Judgments

Background Health Economics Part 1.

Alternative-offer bargainging

Chapter 31 Behavioral Economics.

Economics in the Laboratory

Ch 3: Social Beliefs & Judgments

Behavioral economics Chapter 30

Presentation transcript:

ישראל אומן המרכז לחקר הרציונליות האוניברסיטה העברית, ירושלים פורום הסטודנטים לכלכלה ח"י בטבת תשע"ב באוניברסיטת תל-אביב ( ) כלכלה התנהגותית: כהנמן מול סמית

כהנמן מול סמית ב 2002, ניתן פרס נובל לכלכלה לוֶרנון סמִית ודניאל כהנמן. סמית הוכיח שבני אדם הינם רציונליים. כהנמן הוכיח שבני אדם אינם רציונליים. מה קורה כאן?

כהנמן “In extensive research on human behavior based on surveys and experiments, … Kahneman … called into question the assumption of economic rationality. … (He showed) that people are incapable of fully analyzing complex decision situations … they rely instead on heuristic shortcuts and rules of thumb.” – Information for the Public

סמית “ The first experiments in economics … (tested) … the most fundamental result in economic theory: … (that) the market price (equilibrates) between supply and demand. … Smith found, much to his surprise, that the prices obtained in the laboratory were very close to their theoretical values. … other researchers … by and large confirmed the results.” – Information for the Public

טברסקי וכהנמן נתנו בעצמם את התשובה: בני אדם משתמשים בכללים – "הויריסטיקות" – ולא ממקסמים באופן מודע. כתבו במפורש: “In general, (these heuristics) are quite useful, but sometimes they lead to severe and systematic errors.” -- D. Kahneman and A. Tversky (Science, 1974) אז מה באמת קורה כאן?

בקיצור, סמית מתיחס לשכיח, לכלל; כהנמן – לבלתי שכיח, ליוצא מן הכלל, ל"לפעמים". ושניהם צודקים. שאלה: בעצם, מה זה רציונליות כלכלית? למה הכוונה? תשובה: פעולה נקראת רציונלית אם היא מקדמת את עניני הפועל, בהינתן המידע שלו.

Georg HEGEL (1807) תיזה: כלכלה קלאסית רציונאליות אנטי-תיזה: כלכלה התנהגותית אי-רציונאליות סיסטמטית סינטזה: רציונאליות של כללים

רציונאליות של פעולות: למקסם מעל פעולות: בכל מצב שבו צריך להחליט על פעולה, בחר את הפעולה הטובה ביותר באותו מצב. רציונאליות של כללים: למקסם מעל כללים – לכל סוג מצב שבו צריך לקבל החלטה, בחר כלל החלטה אשר בדרך כלל הנו הטוב ביותר, אבל לאו דווקא תמיד.

רציונאליות של פעולות – מכוון, מודע. רציונאליות של כללים – אבולוציוני, נלמד, תת-מודע. לרוב, הכלל מתבצע ע"י מנגנון.

דבורים, פרחים, וצוף (Andreas Bertch, circa 1985, unpublished) שאלה: למה שדבורים יהיו רציונליים? תשובה: אבולוציה. לא רציונלי

משחק האולטימטום (Güth et al, 1982, Roth et al 1991, Roth and Slonim 1998, …) Two people must divide $100.- They are in separate rooms, do not know each other, and interact only this one time. A designated one, the offerer, makes an offer. The other one, the responder, may either accept or reject. If he accepts, the amount is divided accordingly. If not, no one gets anything.

Results: Usually, most offers are or more generous, and are accepted. Some offers are 80-20, and are usually rejected. This is Possible explanations: PRIDE, SELF-RESPECT, INSULT, REVENGE. Irrelevant explanations: REPUTATIONAL EFFECTS IRRATIONAL

BEES & FLOWERS Act: Find food wherever you can Rule: Go by Experience Mechanism: Learning window ULTIMATUM GAME Act: When offered $20, take them. Rule: Don’t let people kick you in the stomach! Mechanisms: PRIDE, SELF-RESPECT, INSULT, REVENGE Rationality is an expression of evolutionary forces, which work by the RULE, not the exception, not the contrived situation.

Other Examples: Hunger & enjoyment of food Bees & orchids Enjoyment of sex Arrow’s Pacific Island story Probability matching – Choosing a route to get to work (Dreze) Immediacy (Hyperbolic Discounting) (Bavli) Recency (overweighting the probability of recent events) Professor Selten’s Umbrella Endowment Effect Anchoring Altruism Conjunction Fallacy (Zilber, Hertwig & Gigerenzer)

תודה!

DP 497 of the Hebrew University Rationality Center: