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INITIAL CONDITION: 27 th December 2015 Experimental Extended range prediction Experimental Extended range prediction

Real-time forecast based on 27 th December 2015 initial condition  This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members). Abhilash et. al (2015): Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI: /JAMC-D ,

Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)

The next 20 days forecast indicates that  Western disturbance activities are likely to cause precipitation over the western Himalayan region during last 3 pentads with above normal precipitation during 2 nd and 4 th pentads.  A feeble easterly wave trough is likely to cause normal rainfall activity over southern parts of Tamil Nadu during the first pentad.  Remaining parts of India is likely to experience dry weather which is normal during this part of the season.  North India may have respite from cold wave with normal to above normal temperatures during all the 4 pentads. Below normal night minimum temperatures are likely over south peninsula during 1 st, 2 nd & 3 rd pentads due to clear skies and radiational cooling resulted from continental dry air replacing the warm & moist maritime air.  MJO associated convection is moving towards Central Pacific and a fresh spell of MJO associated convective anomaly is expected to appear over Western Indian ocean and expected to move eastward. Key points from the present forecast