‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London

White Flight?: Existing evidence base USA: white preference effects whilst controlling for socio/economic individual & neighborhood characteristics (Crowder & South, 2000) Europe: White avoidance rather than flight (Brama, 2006) ; No ‘native flight’ in France (Rathelot & Safi 2013); Whites say they would leave diverse areas (van Londen 2012) UK: No white flight; counter-urbanisation- but lower class whites significantly more likely to leave diverse areas than lower class mne residents, especially in London (Catney & Simpson, 2010)

Data Uses 18 waves of BHPS (n= person yrs) and waves 1-3 of Understanding Society (40,000 per yr) Attached to geo-referenced data at ward-level (BHPS linearly interpolated using 1991/2001/2011 census) to capture MNE population, deprivation (Carstairs) and population density. Ward-level diversity measured as either % minority, or in Simpson’s quintiles in which each quintile contains a fifth of the mne population (concentration)

Preference to leave by ethnicity and quintile of diversity Source: BHPS-UKHLS

Preference to move Older residents, home owners and those in lower SEG less likely to prefer to move Respondents who are more socially- but not politically- conservative more likely to want to move - but not to actually do so **White respondents more likely to prefer to leave if living in more diverse quintiles

Actual move All respondents more likely to move from more deprived, diverse and urban wards Respondents who are white, younger, better- educated, single, childless, renters more likely to move **The odds of moving higher for whites living in wards with higher minority concentration

Predicted probabilities of move by diversity quintile and ethnicity Source: BHPS ; N=102,974, Pseudo R2 =.193

Understanding Society Data k per year compared to 10k per year Significant sample of far right voters (UKIP, BNP, Other, N = 2,226), in addition to Tory voters to proxy for anti-diversity orientation No interpolation necessary

Understanding Society Larger sample size (40k v 10k) More attitudinal questions pertaining to neighbourhood Period of rise of UKIP and BNP ‘Right’ defined as UKIP+BNP+Conservatives, proxy for attitude to diversity among whites Right x % minorities interaction

Minority% in ward Deprivation of ward

Minority% in ward Right party x Minority% in ward Deprivation of ward

Minority% in ward Right party x Minority% in ward 2 nd lag - Local Friends Mean a Lot

lag of minority% in ward lag of right party voter x minority% in ward like to move (lagged)

Conclusion Neither White British nor anti-diversity White British are more likely to want to leave diverse areas than minorities Nor are they more like to actually leave when other factors taken into account Difficult to support white flight thesis for Britain White avoidance may be a possibility

‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London