Two-week forecast skill for October-November-December Todd Mitchell University of Washington.

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Presentation transcript:

Two-week forecast skill for October-November-December Todd Mitchell University of Washington

Flood amplitudes and Madden-and-Julian Oscillation phase 3 rivers, 32 floods, (Bond and Vecchi 2003) MJO-related precipitation passed Indonesia 5-10 days previous

What forecast skill is there for 15-day October, November, December forecasts in the Pacific Northwest (PNW)? MJO: use existing NCEP models or build a statistical model relating tropical daily precipitation / MJO-state to lagged PNW precipitation. ENSO: Document 15-day forecast skill as a function of ENSO polarity.

Data from the NOAA “reforecast” project Every day run the forecast model out 15 days. Do this 15 times and take the mean. Do this for every day since Examine 500mb geopotential height for Characterize the patterns of variability that the model forecasts best. Canonical correlation analysis (forecast, verification anomalies). Output: pairs of spatial maps (forecast, verification). Calculate the amplitude of each pattern for each day of the input data. The temporal correlation of these timeseries is the skill score.

December-January-February : Leading verification map (top panel) is a mix of Pacific North American and Northern Annular Modes (map shows typical anomalies, contour interval 10m) Associated forecast map (not shown) similar and weaker Temporal amplitudes of verification and forecast maps correlated at 0.67 October-November-December: Leading verification map similar to that for DJF, albeit weaker and more of a Pacific / Polar emphasis Temporal correlation 0.52

All years Cold ENSO Neutral ENSO Warm ENSO

Warm ENSO CCA modes verificationforecast 1 2

Pacific Northwest floods occur in October-November-December Occurrence modulated by: 1) El Niño / Southern Oscillation Maybe more 15-day forecast skill in warm ENSO years 2) Tropical intraseasonal oscillation: CCA( daily tropical rainfall, lagged PNW precipitation ) NCEP forecast models

Examine skill in shorter forecasts. Skill in forecast for average of days Skill in precipitable water forecasts Skill in warm, neutral, and cold ENSO Skill for phases of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (Madden and Julian oscillation)