Port Planning and Perceptions about Climate Change David H. Bierling Texas Transportation Institute Texas A&M Engineering 2nd Workshop on Impacts of Global Climate Change on Hydraulics, Hydrology and Transportation Washington, D.C. March 29, 2006 Paula Lorente Rodríguez Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning Texas A&M University

Our Goal… Explore regional and size differences in U.S. port industry planning practices and perceptions about climate change.

Our Analysis… A Web-based survey distributed to 73 continental U.S. ports. Among the top 150 by USACE tonnage. East, West and Gulf Coasts, Great Lakes & Inland Rivers. Nineteen questions about port planning and perceptions about climate change. Responses from 31 ports across regions and tonnage levels, 27 valid responses. Fisher exact tests used for analysis.

Response Distribution For this sample: –Most responses for Gulf Coast ports, Least responses for East Coast ports. –Overall responses centered around 5 million tons/yr. –No significant regional differences by tonnage levels.

What are the planning horizons of ports and are there regional differences? For this sample: –56% are 5 years or less, 78% are 10 years or less. –Inland Rivers/Great Lakes more likely 5 years or less. –East Coast more likely 10 years or more. –No significant differences by tonnage levels.

For this sample: –The largest ports (>25 million tons per year) are less likely to have plans for new infrastructure development.

–Respondents from ports that do not use generally accepted guidance in planning are less likely to believe climate change is occurring. For this sample: –81% believe climate change is occurring, regardless of its cause. –West Coast respondents are less likely to believe climate change is occurring.

–Inland Rivers and Great Lakes respondents are more likely to believe their ports would be affected. For this sample: –52% anticipate an effect at their ports if climate changes occur in next 50 years. –West Coast respondents are less likely to believe their ports would be affected.

For this sample: –Respondents at ports that do not use historical information in planning are less likely to anticipate climate change effects at their locations. –Respondents at ports that do not use generally accepted guidance in planning are less likely to anticipate climate change effects at their locations.

For this sample: –33% of ports have considered potential impacts of climate change. –The majority of ports that believe their locations would be affected if climate changes occur in next 50 years have considered potential impacts.

For those in this sample who think climate change is occurring: –The majority think it is due mostly to natural cycles with some influence from human activities. –Most (86%) think that climate change due to human activities is reversible.

Implications for Transportation Planners and Policy Makers Planning horizons for ports are much shorter than climate change horizons. Most ports indicated plans for infrastructure development, across regions and sizes. Historical information and generally accepted design guidance are broadly used by ports.

Implications for Transportation Planners and Policy Makers Most respondents believe climate change… –is occurring. –is at least partly due to human activities. –is due more to natural cycles than human activities. –due to human activities is reversible.

Implications for Transportation Planners and Policy Makers About half of port respondents believe their location would be affected by climate changes if they happen in the next 50 years. –Of these, a small majority are taking at least initial steps to plan for climate change. Ports with respondents who believe climate change will not affect their locations are not planning for it.

Implications for Transportation Planners and Policy Makers Accurate and reliable historical information and general guidance will help promote sound planning and development practices by port decision-makers. Support for climate change research and policies may be regionally dependent.

Limitations Limited sample size: –Inability to investigate correlations in response. –Inability to make strong inferences for the U.S. port industry. Unequal responses across regions: –Fewer East Coast, more Gulf Coast ports.

Further questions… Do the results apply to a broader sample? Are perceptions changing over time? How are ports planning for climate change? Are there spatial and social considerations that should be investigated? How is climate change being accounted for by design and consulting firms? What are planning perspectives of other industries?