Chapter 3: Exploring the Future Scott Kaminski ME / 2 / 2005

Exploring the Future Definition: using different strategies to predict possible futures based on present trends while recognizing the integration of environmental and social systems Purpose: –Brainstorm possible futures and what actions are needed to attain those future –Brainstorm how to react to possible events –Reduce the number of surprises –Indicate which path society is heading down –Evaluate the robustness of current strategies

Strategies StrengthsWeaknesses Study Panels with Knowledgeable People Draw on wide range of expertise Accesses understanding that goes beyond data Experts challenge and learn from each other Group - Think Consensus Seeking Excluding different opinions Elicitation of Expert Judgment More diverse than SPWKP Quantitative Possibly Incorrect Internally Consistent Narratives Explores factors beyond normal range of study Incorporates norms and values Idiosyncratic Not scientific Strategic Gaming Integrates scientific models and human ingenuity Time consuming Useless conclusions

Strategies con’t StrengthsWeaknesses Extrapolating Present Trends using Statistics Capture underlying forcesLimits the unknowable No causal understanding Causal Modeling Incorporates scientifically verifiable relationships Quantitative forecasts Demands data Doesn’t incorporate dissident knowledge well Integrated Assessment Models Manages a large amount of diverse information Continues dialogue Serves as comparison Difficult to incorporate data Scenario Building Organize scientific insight Gauge emerging risks Challenge the imaginations Idiosyncratic

Criteria for Evaluating Strategies Scientific Credibility – appropriate treatment of uncertainty Political Legitimacy - people who have the power to cause change view the results as legitimate Practical Utility – strategy is available for use and does not require a lot of resources Effectiveness – correctly predicts future events

Regional Scale Definition: an area that contains diverse circumstances, but also easily identifiable interactions between society and the environment Reasons: –Scaled down version of global situation –Greatest challenges to sustainability occur at this level –This scale has worked in the past –Knowledge is accessible to all and so conflicts between systems can be resolved

Conclusions Model Benefits : probe future implications of present trends, provide options for moving toward sustainability, elucidate necessary actions Model Drawbacks : long-term monitoring is difficult, institutional bias, little knowledge of how global affects regional Reasons for Pessimism : integrated models have not quelled political debate, often negative findings Reasons for Optimism: institutional changes and social shifts have occurred, integrated system study and action have occurred Overall: Sustainability is possible over the next two generations if basic knowledge is increased, there are the social and technological tools available to use that knowledge and the political will to act (Ex. Current Forces Trend Scenario vs. Hunger and Carbon Reduction Scenario)