FOREIGN AID + REGIMES = ? HELEN BROSNAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS INAF PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF FOREIGN AID IN REGIME TRANSITION? How does aid effect democratization? What are the characteristics of the donor nation? What are the characteristics of the recipient nation? PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION

HYPOTHESIS More aid means an increase in the likelihood of democratic regime transition Often with an incentive Size of distributional coalition matters PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION Aid Democracy

HYPOTHESIS: THE COUNTERARGUMENT Counterargument: Foreign aid never actually reaches intended recipients i.e.: poor people, democratic organizations/institutions Argument: Country is receiving aid for a reason Domestic government cannot support these people/institutions! PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION

HYPOTHESIS: THE COUNTERARGUMENT Counterargument: Foreign aid can enshrine existing dictatorships Argument: The source of funding matters If a country is simply donating to another country for political reasons– not effective Democratic  democracy Corrupt  corruption PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION

IS THIS REALLY TRUE? Joseph Wright, American Journal of Political Science “The promise of higher aid if the country democratizes only provides an incentive for democratization for political leaders who expect to remain in office after democratization occurs.” PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION

EXPLANATION Poor countries want aid Increases Utility Under Democracy AND Dictatorship Donors can reduce aid in the regime change if current dictator chooses not to democratize Provide incentive i.e.: Burma and U.S. relations PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION

Cheibub PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF FOREIGN AID IN REGIME TRANSITION? Characteristics of donor/recipient Democratic nations  democracy Large coalitions Aid can increase or decrease Provide incentive PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS LITERATURE DATASETS CONCLUSION