Riding the IFPS/GFE into the Future of Forecasting Lynn Maximuk MIC WFO Pleasant Hill, MO

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting2 IT Has Changed Our Forecast World The NWS primary product is information – not text messages –Wholesale vs Retail The NWS primary product is information – not text messages –Wholesale vs Retail Partners and customers demand more of the most current information possible, available when they want it Partners and customers demand more of the most current information possible, available when they want it If forecasters can’t feed the IT machines, model data is a cost efficient alternative If forecasters can’t feed the IT machines, model data is a cost efficient alternative

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting3 What is the NDFD?

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting4 NDFD as of 9/5/02

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting5 NDFD Grids Multiple owners – Time and Space Multiple owners – Time and Space WFOs WFOs National Centers HPC/SPC/CPC/AWC/NHC etc. National Centers HPC/SPC/CPC/AWC/NHC etc. NWS product – not local office product NWS product – not local office product Your office produces a piece of the product Your office produces a piece of the product Meteorological consistency a must Meteorological consistency a must If we can’t do it some one else will If we can’t do it some one else will One stop shopping One stop shopping

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting6 How Can Customers Get It? National Data Base National Data Base  Updated hourly  Available Oct 2002  Accessed from NDFD servers via FTP

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting7 New Information Suite Life Beyond the Zones DIGITAL DIGITAL DETAILED DETAILED DISPLAYABLE DISPLAYABLE ALWAYS CURRENT ALWAYS CURRENT READY TO PULL READY TO PULL

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting8 Not the ZFP…but words too

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting9 Detailed Hourly Forecast Information

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting10 Graphical Detailed Look

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting11 New World of Forecasting Use GFE/IFPS to paint meteorologically consistent picture of the weather for days 1-7 Use GFE/IFPS to paint meteorologically consistent picture of the weather for days 1-7 Grids are the Thing! – They drive legacy product updates Grids are the Thing! – They drive legacy product updates Short Term forecaster in grids 24 hours a day Short Term forecaster in grids 24 hours a day Multiple forecasters may be in data base – as dictated by weather Multiple forecasters may be in data base – as dictated by weather Forecast collaboration rather than coordination Forecast collaboration rather than coordination

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting12 Always Current Digital Data Base Event Driven Updates Event Driven Updates National, regional and local National, regional and local Customer/partner pull versus push Customer/partner pull versus push Allocation of staffing – shift times - overlap Allocation of staffing – shift times - overlap Issuance times? Issuance times?

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting13 Major Changes That Must Be Addressed Significant changes to forecast process and product suite Significant changes to forecast process and product suite Working with, rather than looking at, model data Working with, rather than looking at, model data How to produce an “always current” digital data base How to produce an “always current” digital data base Collaboration/coordination Collaboration/coordination Verification/Quality Assurance Verification/Quality Assurance

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting14 Forecast Process Changes Working with forecast grids instead of words Working with forecast grids instead of words New editing processes and tools New editing processes and tools Interaction with model data Interaction with model data Temporal division of forecast responsibility Temporal division of forecast responsibility

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting15 Event Driven Updates Scheduled Issuances of legacy prods? Scheduled Issuances of legacy prods? No Updates – “always current” NWS products you can count on No Updates – “always current” NWS products you can count on What’s an event? What’s an event? New model guidance that changes thinking New model guidance that changes thinking Dropping first period – adding new day 7 Dropping first period – adding new day 7 Local customer needs Local customer needs Observed weather doesn’t match forecast Observed weather doesn’t match forecast

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting16Collaboration What tools are needed What tools are needed ISC Grids ISC Grids Chat capability Chat capability Whiteboard/drawing capability Whiteboard/drawing capability FX-Connect – AWIPS interactive chat/white board FX-Connect – AWIPS interactive chat/white board Voice communication – meet-me calls Voice communication – meet-me calls What part of the NDFD does the WFO own? Ownership issues to address What part of the NDFD does the WFO own? Ownership issues to address Meteorological consistency across boundaries versus personality Meteorological consistency across boundaries versus personality Working as a team – inter-office science sharing including NCEP centers Working as a team – inter-office science sharing including NCEP centers

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting17 ISC Grids

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting18 ISC Grid Collaboration

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting19 Chat Room Sample

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting20 Verification/Quality Assurance Grid versus point verification Grid versus point verification Multiple forecasters working on data base Multiple forecasters working on data base Real time feedback Real time feedback What do we look at to determine quality and timeliness? What do we look at to determine quality and timeliness?

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting21 Forecast Monitoring

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting22 Re-analyze The Way Your Office Does Business

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting23 Some Things To Look At Temporal workload distribution – do your shift hours match workload Temporal workload distribution – do your shift hours match workload Division of forecast responsibility Division of forecast responsibility Collaboration versus coordination Collaboration versus coordination How can our office get more meteorological information to our customers now! How can our office get more meteorological information to our customers now! Product quality feedback to staff Product quality feedback to staff

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting24 More Considerations We don’t produce WFO xxx products, we produce part of the NWS product suite We don’t produce WFO xxx products, we produce part of the NWS product suite Don’t sit there complaining – get feedback into the stream through Regional channels Don’t sit there complaining – get feedback into the stream through Regional channels Changes are coming faster than ever before – is your staff ready to handle that? Changes are coming faster than ever before – is your staff ready to handle that?

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting25 Shift Management Challenges The lead needs to Lead The lead needs to Lead Time, data, and people resources must be managed each shift Time, data, and people resources must be managed each shift Everyone’s time is part of the forecast team pool Everyone’s time is part of the forecast team pool Shift duties and professional development time are flexible Shift duties and professional development time are flexible

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting26 Focus Must be Changed From Products to Providing Information!

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting27 Implementation Challenges

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting28 Successful Implementation Depends Upon: Communication of Digital Information Vision Communication of Digital Information Vision Provide Continuously Updated Detailed Information Provide Continuously Updated Detailed Information

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting29 Implementation Support Identify problems and get solutions Identify problems and get solutions Reinforce vision regularly/repeatedly Reinforce vision regularly/repeatedly Encourage new ideas for information dissemination Encourage new ideas for information dissemination Outreach to customers (WCM involvement) is critical to new information service Outreach to customers (WCM involvement) is critical to new information service CHANGE – new problems require new solutions CHANGE – new problems require new solutions

Sept , 2002Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting30 Implementation Successes Knobology training on-going Knobology training on-going Forecasters thinking “graphically” Forecasters thinking “graphically” Grids drive “retail” products Grids drive “retail” products Forecaster Team concept evolved Forecaster Team concept evolved Workload adjustments driven by forecasters Workload adjustments driven by forecasters Flexibility Flexibility