Petroleum Outlook: Increased Inter-PADD Movements Expected Joanne Shore Energy Information Administration API Annual Pipeline Conference Dallas, Texas.

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Presentation transcript:

Petroleum Outlook: Increased Inter-PADD Movements Expected Joanne Shore Energy Information Administration API Annual Pipeline Conference Dallas, Texas April

Introduction Supply-Demand Fundamentals Drive Prices Regional Prices Reflect Regional Supply-Demand Balances & Distribution System Needs Future Regional Supply-Demand Balances

WTI Crude Oil Price: Uncertain Future, But Drivers Adding Upward Pressure Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2002.

OPEC Discipline & Economic Recovery Tighten World Balance in 2002 *Total includes commercial and government stocks. Source: EIA

U.S. Supply/Demand Balance Follows World Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2002.

Product Supply/Demand Balance Affects Wholesale Price Relative to Crude Oil Source: Reuters Apr-Aug ‘99 8 cents Apr-Aug ‘00 15cents Apr-Aug ‘01 16cents

Regional Supply/Demand Balances Affect Regional Prices Source: EIA

Recent Focus on Distribution System’s Ability to Help Restore Regional Imbalances Imports

Pipeline & Barge Movements of Light Products* Critical to Regional Supply Note: Light products are gasoline, distillate and jet fuel. Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly, 2001

Light Product Demand Growth Expected in All Regions Source: EIA

Potential Increases in Light Product Demand Source: EIA

But How Will Supply Grow Relative to Demand? Source: EIA

Domestic Supply Is Expected To Grow in Aggregate Source: EIA Time Period Annual Average Shutdown Capacity(*) (MB/CD) Growth of Continuously Operating Capacity % % % (*)Historical shutdowns are for years ,

Size of Shutdowns Largest in PADD 2, But More Shutdowns Possible PADDNumber Total Shutdowns Share of 2000 Capacity Average Size (MB/CD)(Percent)(MB/CD) Refinery Shutdowns Source: EIA

Potential Light Product Volume Changes Note: Light products are gasoline, distillate & jet Source: EIA

MTBE Ban Refinery Impacts LOSS OF GASOLINE YIELD Substitute Ethanol for MTBE –But Only Need Half As Much Ethanol for Same Oxygen Remove “Light Ends” to Keep RVP Down Remove “Heavy Ends” to Keep DI Down (CA) BALANCE BY INCREASING: Crude Oil Throughput (utilization increase) “Outside” Clean Streams (Iso-octane, alkylate) Volume of Ethanol Used Product Imports If Available

RFG & Blending Component Imports May Not Increase Source: EIA

Illustrative MTBE Ban Impacts Light Product Volume Changes Production Net Imports

Illustrative MTBE Ban Impact on Net Receipt Changes Note: Light products are gasoline, distillate & jet Source: EIA

Conclusion Demand growth will continue to pressure supply Refinery growth is expected, but tight markets produce varying regional balance dynamics –PADD 3 key incremental supply source –Increasing flows to PADD’s 1 and 2 MTBE bans could pressure distribution system –Loss of gasoline production capability –Loss of imports –More distinct products to move –Increased inter-PADD movements