Term Project: Correlation of AO Indices vs. Corresponding Tornadic Centroid Location and Total Tornado Count April Haneklau EAS 4480 – Environmental Data.

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Presentation transcript:

Term Project: Correlation of AO Indices vs. Corresponding Tornadic Centroid Location and Total Tornado Count April Haneklau EAS 4480 – Environmental Data Analysis April 23, 2013

Introduction Idea: Positive AO = Tornadic Activity Reason: Warmer temperatures  Sharper temperature gradients Cold air Warm air

Overview Analyzing correlation between AO indices and tornadic activity of April of each year. Monthly = Daily = Data collected from NCDC Storm Events Database and CPC Teleconnection Archives. April 2011!

Primary Calculations Weighted Average: From daily storm reports, a weighted average (by EF/F rating) latitude and longitude value was calculated for each year's April. Purpose: to show location of centroid of tornadic activity Correlation Coefficient & Least-Squares Regression Calculated the correlation and least- squares regression between AO and monthly weighted latitudes & longitudes, monthly tornado count and daily tornado count. Covariance & CPSD Calculated cross power spectral density to identify possible shared cycles observed in periodogram. Calculated lag time from covariance of daily data to identify lag between observed AO & tornadic activity. Periodogram Calculated and plotted periodogram of monthly weighted latitudes & longitudes, monthly tornado count, daily tornado count, monthly AO indices and daily AO indices. Purpose: to identify possible cycles.

Weighted Average Calculation April 2011!

Histogram: Positive vs. Negative AO

Correlation Coefficient & Lag Monthly VariablesDaily Variables R 2 Valuep value Tornado Count Weighted Latitude Weighted Longitude Significant! R 2 Valuep value Tornado Count (total) Tornado Count (tornadic days) Lag time-29 days(?)

Least-Squares Regression East West North South April 2011!

Periodogram

CPSD Estimate

Houston, we have a problem... Tornado rating scale changed from F to EF in Thus, weights could potentially be slightly skewed. Data not well obtained/archived before 2000; 107 days in 1990's had incomplete data and were excluded from calculations. Only analyzed 23 years; likely would see significant or real peaks with larger dataset.