PB #5 Polling
Measuring PO Public Opinion – people’s opinion on an issue PO Poll: small number of people – the sample (respondents) – are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of the population (whole group)
Take to take a survey! Cake
Accurate? Scientific Polls: Can be quite accurate if people are randomly selected: approx 1000 ppl can reflect opinions of entire country
Understanding PO Rarely a true majority (over 50%) agree –usually multiple opinions Sometimes no strong opinions at all – ppl may be uninformed or don’t care Gov responds best to strong opinions –Can used to determine policy (course of gov’l action)
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Open-ended % Economy/Jobs38 War/Iraq/Afghanis tan 7 Health care6 Oil spill in Gulf5 Budget deficit/National debt 5 Immigration4 Other31 Unsure4
Sampling Error or Margin of Error Scientifically conducted polls will include the sampling error or MoE in terms of + or – a certain percent
Statistical Tie When polls are so close they are w/in MoE (aka “dead heat”) MoE +/- 3% –McCain 48% –Obama 44% –Nader 1%
Exit Poll Polls as ppl exit their polling place (where they vote) Criticized b/c can discourage voting
Factors that affect polls’ accuracy 1.Scientific polls call you! Non-response Cell phones 2.Inaccurate polls: “Man on the Street” Internet Surveys
More Factors 3.Wording of the question 4.Response Bias Ppl often say what they think is the “right” answer 5.Intensity of Opinion Environment Timing Natural Disasters
USA Today/Gallup Poll. May 24-25, N=1,049 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.. "With which one of these statements about the environment and the economy do you most agree? Protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth. OR, Economic growth should be given priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent." Options rotated
Environ ment Economic growth Equal priority (vol.) Un sur e %% 5/24-25/ /4-7/ /5-8/ /6-9/ /11-14/
Is this poll accurate? Fan Favorite