Current Climatic Condition GIS/Agromet MAIL

Precipitation Comparison 21 st Jan to 21st Feb

Field Report on fruit trees  Almond has blossomed in most parts of the country where grown  Apricot has also blossomed in some parts of the country where grown

Famine Early Warning Systems Network Agroclimatic Outlook February 23 / MAIL Kabul, Afghanistan

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK4 OUTLINE 1.CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION 2.WEATHER FORECAST

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK5 CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK6 Below average precipitation in some of the province

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK7 Dryness recovered February 4 – 10, 2016 Small to moderate precipitation deficits have persisted

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK8 Not very bad situation than last wet season, But mostly in shape of rainfall

Famine Early Warning Systems Network Afghanistan Seasonal Snowpack Status February 2016

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK10

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK11 Basins in the North

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK12 Basins in the West

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK13 Basins in the South

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK14 Basins in the East

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK15 Low snow cover compared to last year and the average

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK16 While we expected above average precipitation this season due to the ongoing El Nino event, it seems that so far this has not happened. The extent of snow covered area is below average, and snow water content of the pack appears to be generally low too. While basins in the North have accumulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) that are about average, basins in the West and South are well below average according to the model. In the basins of the East, early season SWE accumulations tracked at about average, but recently they show signs of leveling off to be below average for this time of year. As a summary on seasonal snow pack accumulations in Afghanistan

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK17 WEATHER FORECAST

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK18 SHORT TERM FORECAST WEEK 1

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK19 SHORT TERM FORECAST WEEK 2

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK20 Feb-Apr Forecast NMME TemperatureNMME Precipitation

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK21 Mar-May Forecast NMME TemperatureNMME Precipitation

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK22 Apr-Jun Forecast NMME TemperatureNMME Precipitation

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK23 Assumptions  Although El Niño typically results in above-average precipitation in Central Asia, near-average precipitation for Afghanistan and Tajikistan is forecast through the remainder of the wet season ending in May  Near-surface air temperatures will be above-average through at least May There is an elevated risk that periods of freezing or frost could damage tree crops, as blooming is likely to happen earlier than usual.  There will be a near-average risk of flooding during spring 2016, which reflects expectations for near-average snow accumulation.  During the primary 2016 staple season from March – August, it is most likely that the availability of water for irrigation will be normal.

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK24 Thanks for being with us.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network Current Climatic Condition GIS/Agromet MAIL

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK26 Precipitation Comparison 21 st Jan to 21st Feb

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK27 Field Report on fruit trees  Almond has blossomed in most parts of the country where grown  Apricot has also blossomed in some parts of the country where grown