ATEC-4DWX Project 6 October 2008 Jason Knievel, lead scientist Keith Searight, lead engineer Scott Swerdlin, project manager

History and Scope of Project Funded by U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) since 1996 Oldest and largest project in the National Security Applications Program (NSAP) FY09 Funding: $3.6 million among 40–50 staff

History and Scope of Project Dugway Proving Ground, UT Aberdeen Test Center, MD White Sands Missile Range, NM Cold Regions Test Center, AK Electronics Proving Ground, AZ Yuma Proving Ground, AZ

Project Goals Assimilate myriad data to produce custom, fine- scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts Couple NWP output to decision support systems (e.g., sound propagation models, transport-and- dispersion models) Verify forecasts meaningfully in real time Produce short-term thunderstorm forecasts Generate and analyze gridded climatographies Provide tailored applications for analysis, graphics, and communication

Example: Coupled Models >110 dB Probability >120 dB Probability Average dB Median dBStandard deviation dB Ensemble of 108 simulated soundings are fed to the Noise Assessment and Prediction System (NAPS) to produce probabilistic guidance

Example: Verification Forecast aids –Derived from object- oriented verification –Graphical and tabular –Exemplifies value- added approach to forecasting Too many/strong About right Too few/weak 10-m wind and shifts in model Rarity hourly frames

Example: Interfaces to 4DWX Web Portal –Customizable, elegant, Web-based “dashboard” –Elegant and simple control over powerful capabilities

Example: Interfaces to 4DWX Web-based Global Modeling on Demand (GMOD) –Globally re-locatable domains and multiple configuration suites –Single model runs or ensembles

Project Imperatives Feedback of technology and expertise to RAL, NCAR, and broader community –Example: four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) Close, two-way relationship with sponsor and users –In-process reviews, forecaster training, range visits, teleconferences, exit surveys, Army internship program Rapid transfer of R&D to operations Customized, value-added forecasts Frequent system upgrades to demonstrate steady progress

Example: Two-Way Relationship Annual Forecasters’ Training 4DWX Knowledge Base Documentation through indexed, searchable Web interface

Project Frontiers New data-assimilation schemes and new data New diagnostic variables and products to support next generation of testing at ranges Calibration and full distribution of ensemble, including real-time selection of members Expanded use of advanced model verification More support for long-term planning through climate downscaling Field campaigns at ranges