UNECE, 6-9 May 2014, Geneva Inclusion of NOE in the Dutch National Accounts

Content – Background – Scope – Methodology – Results 2

Background – NA need to be exhaustive – Starting the 2010 ESA revision illegal activities are included – Other non-observed economic activities were already covered in the Dutch National Accounts 3

Non-observed economy Scope is arbitrary. Five sub-categories: 1.Underground production 2.Illegal production 3.Informal sector production 4.Household production for own final use 5.Production missed due to deficiencies in data collection program 4

Methodology For underground and white spots built upon the existing methodology, estimates for illegal are completely new after revision. Activity specific method. Based upon many ad hoc research findings and additional assumptions. During the integration phase corrected for double counting. 5

Methodology – example prostitution The consumption is estimated using: -Number of prostitutes -> in Number of working weeks a year -> 40 -Average price per visit -> € 50 in Number of clients per week -> 20 Consumption in 1995 = 520 mln euros Consumption in 2013 = 869 mln euros Adjustements are made for imports and exports, and estimates for intermediate use are calculated following previous methods. 6

Results – prostitution activities 7

Results - sensitivity 8

Results Table 4.1 Estimates for various underground activities,

Results Table 4.3 Estimates white spots,

Results – Effects on GVA,

Discussion and conclusions 12 – NOE is hidden by nature, resulting estimates are subject to significant uncertainty. – Only estimates for the most important activities – Challenging to construct time series

Thank you 13 Arjan Bruil Statistics Netherlands