Understanding Forecast Skill What is the Overall Limit of Predictability? What Limits Predictability? –Uncertainty in Initial Conditions: Chaos within.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

An Investigation of the Spring Predictability Barrier Yehui Chang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Michele Rienecker, Augustine Vintzileos* and Nicole.

Advertisements

Mark Cane Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO): An Introduction.

Scientific Advisory Committee – April 2010Jim Kinter - COLA Overview Proposal Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting 12 April 2010.

Weather Noise Forcing of Low Frequency Variability in the North Atlantic Edwin K. Schneider COLA SAC Meeting April 2010.

INPE Activities on Seasonal Climate Predictions Paulo Nobre INPE-CCST-CPTEC WGSIP-12, Miami, January 2009.

Initialization Issues of Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Prediction System Climate and Environment System Research Center Seoul National University, Korea In-Sik.

1 Seasonal Forecasts and Predictability Masato Sugi Climate Prediction Division/JMA.

Assessment of CFSv2 hindcast (seasonal mean) CPC/NCEP/NOAA Jan 2011.

THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE PREDICTION SCENARIOS ON SOUTHERN AFRICAN SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST SKILL Willem A. Landman Asmerom Beraki.

Validation of the NCEP CFS forecasts Suranjana Saha Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC.

THE BEST ANALYZED AIR- SEA FLUXES FOR SEASONAL FORECASTING 2.12 Glenn H. White, W. Wang, S. Saha, D. Behringer, S. Nadiga and H.-L. Pan Global Climate.

Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling Paulo Nobre INPE-CPTEC Apoio:

My Agenda for CFS Diagnostics Ancient Chinese proverb: “ Even a 9-month forecast begins with a single time step.” --Hua-Lu Pan.

EG1204: Earth Systems: an introduction Meteorology and Climate Lecture 7 Climate: prediction & change.

Objects Basic Research (Hypotheses and Understanding) Applied Research (Applications and Tools) Joint effects of ENSO and SST anomalies in different ocean.

Modes of Pacific Climate Variability: ENSO and the PDO Michael Alexander Earth System Research Lab michael.alexander/publications/

The Interactive Ensemble Coupled Modeling Strategy Ben Kirtman Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies And George Mason University.

Influence of intraseasonal surface wind variability on ENSO in CFS predictions Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, Arun Kumar, Yan Xue Climate Prediction Center,

The Evolution of Lead-lag ENSO-Indian Monsoon Relationship in GCM Experiments Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies George Mason University Emilia K.

Challenges in Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Inadequacy of the Tier-2 Strategy Bin Wang Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Summary/Future Re-anal.

IGST Meeting June 2-4, 2008 The GMAO’s Ocean Data Assimilation & SI Forecasts Michele Rienecker, Christian Keppenne, Robin Kovach Jossy Jacob, Jelena Marshak.

Air-sea interaction over the Indian Ocean after El Nino in JMA/MRI-CGCM seasonal forecast experiment Tamaki Yasuda Meteorological.

Effect of Tropical Biases on ENSO Simulation and Prediction Ed Schneider and Ben Kirtman George Mason University COLA.

Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin.

Improved ensemble-mean forecast skills of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic model-error model of an intermediate coupled model Jiang Zhu and Fei Zheng.

BMRC coupled modelling: Oscar Alves, Guomin Wang, Neville Smith, Aihong Zhong, Faina Tseitkin, Andrew Marshall BMRC Model Development.

The Influence of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions on ENSO Variability Michael Alexander NOAA/Earth System Research Lab.

Verification of IRI Forecasts Tony Barnston and Shuhua Li.

Ben Kirtman University of Miami-RSMAS Disentangling the Link Between Weather and Climate.

Motivation Quantify the impact of interannual SST variability on the mean and the spread of Probability Density Function (PDF) of seasonal atmospheric.

3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 1) Outline of the EPS 2) Examples of products 3) Performance of the system.

Y. Fujii 1, S. Matsumoto 1, T. Yasuda 1, M. Kamachi 1, K. Ando 2 （ 1 MRI/JMA, 2 JAMSTEC ） OSE Experiments Using the JMA-MRI ENSO Forecasting System 2nd.

1 Daily modes of the South Asian monsoon variability and their relation with SST Deepthi Achuthavarier Work done with V. Krishnamurthy Acknowledgments.

Eastern Pacific feedbacks and the forecast of extreme El Niño events

El Niño Forecasting Stephen E. Zebiak International Research Institute for climate prediction The basis for predictability Early predictions New questions.

1 The Impact of Mean Climate on ENSO Simulation and Prediction Xiaohua Pan Bohua Huang J. Shukla George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere.

Extending the Diagnosis of the Climate of the 20th Century to Coupled GCMs Edwin K. Schneider George Mason University/COLA.

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA/GSFC GMAO Merger of NSIPP and the DAO offices at GSFC Science areas: Subseasonal-to-Seasonal-to-Decadal Prediction.

Decadal Prediction and Predictability Presenter: Edwin K. Schneider COLA SAC Meeting September 2011.

Seasonal Climate Prediction Li Xu Department of Meteorology University of Utah.

Yuanhong Guan (NUIST, Nanjing, China) Bohua Huang (GMU/COLA)

11 th WGSIP Workshop, 7-8 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Seasonal Climate Predictions at CPTEC-INPE Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE.

On Climate Predictability of the Summer Monsoon Rainfall Bin Wang Department of Meteorology and IPRC University of Hawaii Acknowledging contribution from.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast September 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

MICHAEL A. ALEXANDER, ILEANA BLADE, MATTHEW NEWMAN, JOHN R. LANZANTE AND NGAR-CHEUNG LAU, JAMES D. SCOTT Mike Groenke (Atmospheric Sciences Major)

1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 28 October 2010 Challenge: What Impact would a 30% reduction in ship time… SI Forecasting Perspective Arun Kumar.

Matthew J. Hoffman CEAFM/Burgers Symposium May 8, 2009 Johns Hopkins University Courtesy NOAA/AVHRR Courtesy NASA Earth Observatory.

1 A review of CFS forecast skill for Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar and Yan Xue CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Fifth Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2014 Hitoshi Sato Climate Prediction.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast December 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast August 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

1/39 Seasonal Prediction of Asian Monsoon: Predictability Issues and Limitations Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center

Predictability and predictions of Indian summer Monsoon rainfall using dynamical models Michael K. Tippett (IRI), Andrew Robertson (IRI), Makarand Kulkarni.

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Suryachandra A. Rao Colloborators: Hemant, Subodh, Samir, Ashish & Kiran Dynamical Seasonal Prediction.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah 11 The Hydrologic.

ENSO Prediction Skill in the NCEP CFS Renguang Wu Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Coauthors: Ben P. Kirtman (RSMAS, University of Miami) Huug.

Equatorial Atlantic Variability: Dynamics, ENSO Impact, and Implications for Model Development M. Latif 1, N. S. Keenlyside 2, and H. Ding 1 1 Leibniz.

Summer Monsoon – Global Ocean Interactions Ben Kirtman George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Acknowledgements: Randy Wu and.

Coupled Initialization Experiments in the COLA Anomaly Coupled Model

POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia)

Abstract: ENSO variability has a seasonal phase locking, with SST anomalies decreasing during the beginning of the year and SST anomalies increasing during.

ENSO Frequency Cascade and Implications for Predictability

ENSO and its impact on eastern/southern African climate:

Seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction using a fully coupled OAGCM

Asha Vijayeta & Dietmar Dommenget

ECMWF activities: Seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales

T. Ose, T. Yasuda (MRI/JMA), Y. Takaya, S. Maeda, C. Kobayashi

Joint Proposal to WGOMD for a community ocean model experiment

Decadal Climate Prediction at BSC

Presentation transcript:

Understanding Forecast Skill What is the Overall Limit of Predictability? What Limits Predictability? –Uncertainty in Initial Conditions: Chaos within Non-Linear Dynamics of the Coupled System –Uncertainty as the System Evolves: External Stochastic Effects Model Dependence? –Model Error

CFSIE - Reduce Noise Version (interactive ensemble) of CFS

RMS(Obs)*1.4 CFSIE RMSE CFS Spread CFS RMSE CFSIE Spread

Western Pacific Problem Hypothesis: Atmospheric Internal Dynamics (Stochastic Forcing) is Occurring on Space and Time Scales that are Too Coherent  Too Coherent Oceanic Response  Excessive Ocean Forcing Atmosphere  Test: Add White Noise to Latent Heat Flux

Contemporaneous Latent Heat Flux - SST Correlation Control Coupled Model Increased “Randomness” Coupled Model Add White Noise in Space and Time to Latent Heat Flux in the Western Pacific (Ad-Hoc) Observational Estimates Based on NASA GFSST2 Data

SST OGCM rand (1, …, N) Sfc Fluxes 1 AGCM 1 Sfc Fluxes 2 AGCM 2 Sfc Fluxes N AGCM N Selected Member’s Sfc Fluxes Random Interactive Ensemble Approach Ensemble of N AGCMs all receive same OGCM-output SST each day OGCM receives output of single, randomly-selected AGCM each day Randomly select 1 member’s surface fluxes each day

Standard IERandom IE Nino34 Regression on Equatorial Pacific SSTA

Nino3.4 Power Spectra Period (months) Increasing Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing Increase the ENSO Period Reduced Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing Moderate Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing Increased Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing