James S. Ellis Atmospheric Science Division Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Department of Energy (DOE) Workshop on Effective Emergency Response.

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Presentation transcript:

James S. Ellis Atmospheric Science Division Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Department of Energy (DOE) Workshop on Effective Emergency Response Selecting a Suitable Dispersion Model for a Given Application Panel: Selection of Screening Categories for Models A DOE View Crowne Plaza Washington National Airport Crystal City, Virginia December 5–6, 2001

JE.CrystalCity.12/5/01.lp.Pg.2 DOE Dispersion Modeling Emergency Response Activities DOE Facility/Site Emergency Preparedness and Response  Develop hazard assessments, emergency action levels, and modeling systems to use in emergency response Deployable Assets for Emergency Response (ARG, FRMAC, RAP, NEST)  Support resources to protect public from major radiological accidents and terrorist events

JE.CrystalCity.12/5/01.lp.Pg.3 Event Types Radiological and industrial chemical Nuclear reactor Nuclear fuel cycle Nuclear weapon accidents Radiological dispersal devices Nuclear yield fallout Chemical and biological agents Natural hazards (e.g., smoke)

JE.CrystalCity.12/5/01.lp.Pg.4 DOE Concept of Support Local models with connectivity to a centralized comprehensive modeling capability Concept provides: corroborating results backup simple to complex applications short range to long range element of consistency across DOE

Categories for Selecting a Model 1.Application 2.Target user community 3.Scale 4.Resolution 5.Time steps (steady sate, time dependent) 6.Type of diffusion module (Gaussian, CFD, etc.) 7.Type of transport module (prognostic, stochastic, etc.) 8.Terrain implementation 9.Boundary features (land-sea, urban, etc.) 10.Deposition 11.Weather input 12.Source implementation 13.Effects implementation 14.Platform and system components 15.Environment 16.Runtime 17.Status of evaluation 18.Accuracy 19.On-going development 20.Databases (static, time dependent) 21.Software support/maintenance 22.Electronic communication (Input, output) 23.Product delivery mechanism 24.Presentation format 25.Mapping/GIS 26.User Interface/user training 27.Staffing requirements 28.CONOPS JE.CrystalCity.12/5/01.lp.Pg.5

JE.CrystalCity.12/5/01.lp.Pg.6 Key Challenges in Providing Emergency Response Source term definition Integrating measurements with models Obtaining multi-scale meteorology Presentation to decision makers/stakeholders

GlobalMesoscaleLocalUrbanBuilding 100 km10 km1 km100 m10 m1 m Dispersion Prediction are Driven by Meteorological Forecasts Meteorological Forecasts Dispersion Predictions JE.CrystalCity.12/5/01.lp.Pg.7