Quality assurance surveys and program administration – when accuracy really counts Stephen Horn Contributed paper Q2008

outline Quality assurance surveys in context –Regulating risk –Fraud and error in social security systems –Measuring payment accuracy Random Sample Surveys –Design –Quality assurance –Estimation & Reporting Issues –Exploiting an Admin frame –Kalman filtering –SE estimation of variables with highly skewed distributions –Performance measures [kpis, correctness/accuracy, latency measures] –Audit oversight – the construction of official statistics

Accountability for Social Security payments

STRATIFICATION & SAMPLE ALLOCATION

SAMPLE DESIGN – REMOTE CLUSTER FORMATION

CLUSTERING METHODOLOGY

SAMPLE SURVEY PROCESS MAP – RSS REVIEWS

RANDOM REVIEW RESULTS SYSTEM

SURVEY-ADMIN DATA LINKAGE MAP

DATASET 1 – CUSTOMER LINK IRS TO ADMIN DATA

DATASET 3 – DEBT ANALYSIS LINKED TO DMIS

DATASET 4 – VARIABLE RESULTS FOR RRRS

INDEBTEDNESS BY PROGRAM

LATENT INDEBTEDNESS – RECENCY OF DEBT

DEBTS – KEY PREVENTION INDICATOR

LATENT AND RAISED SERIES – AVERAGE DEBT SIZE

PAY INACCURACY – LATENT MEASURES

PAYMENT INACCURACY – MOVING AGGREGATES

POINT PAYMENT ACCURACY

CUSTOMERS PAID ACCURATELY

MOVING AGGREGATE