Impact of an Aging Population Breakout Session

Phil Eckhert, Hennepin County Director of Housing, Community Works and Transit Ross Macmillan, University of Minnesota Associate Professor Sociology and Director of The Life Course Center

 Late April HUP held a planning session with leaders from the County and the University  15 policy areas were discussed and prioritized (previously identified by County and University faculty and staff, including suggestions from the Oct 2008 HUP Symposium)  3 areas were prioritized: ◦ Child Well-Being (increasing successful outcomes for children placed in foster care) ◦ Educational Attainment (increasing graduation rates for Hennepin County students) ◦ Impacts of an Aging Population (planning for the effects of the Baby Boomer “age wave”)

 2008 to 2011 is a watershed period.  The first of the “Boom” generation enters entitlement age  More than half (55%) of population growth will be seniors age 65+  By 2020, labor force growth will be at record lows  By 2015 “empty nesters” will out number married couples with children  By 2020 older singles (55+) will be 57% of all singles living alone

From 2010 to 2020, Hennepin Will See Large Increases Over Age 60 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Numbers are rounded

Minnesota State Demographic Center projections

CENTER FOR BUDGET POLICY AND PRIORITIES Sept 10,2009 Poverty Rose, Median Income Declined

WHAT ELSE WILL CHANGE?

HOUSE PRICE DECLINES!!

PER CENT HOMES “UNDERWATER”

BIG CHANGE!!

RETRO UNDERWRITING?  REAL DOWNPAYMENT  HIGHER CREDIT SCORE  REAL HOUSEPRICE-INCOME CONNECTION  A JOB  NO “LIAR LOANS”

 Changing character of aging  Advances in medical technology and its impact upon life expectancy and quality of life for older adults  Changes in the institutional nature of work in American society safety nets such as Social Security.  Increasing urbanization of America, coupled with the emergence of the metropolis as the central geographic locale

 Implications of aging for housing is enormously complicated ◦ Issues of stock ◦ Issues of market ◦ Issues of resources ◦ Issues of choice  All of these things are dynamic ◦ Subject to change with time and aging ◦ Current conditions are particularly complicated

 Simple assumption: the past shapes the future ◦ 1) Map out housing patterns for Hennepin County with known information (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000)  MPC is the world leader in the management of census data ◦ 2) Extrapolate (under different assumptions) what expected patterns for 2010, 2020, 2030, etc. ◦ 3) Repeat the process for different social groups, income levels, areas within the county, etc. (where possible to add precision

 A) current housing stock  B) projected building ◦ Including ‘new’ types of housing (i.e., multi-unit dwellings, shared accommodations, multi-generational housing)  C) health and social services  D) transportation  E) other things we haven’t thought of…

 How would we know? ◦ Can compare projected patterns of housing with realized values of housing  2010 Census  American Community Survey (ACS)  Agent-based modeling ◦ Simulate patterns of behavior while ‘manipulating’ specific characteristics  E.g., changes in taxes, changes in employment, changes in multi-generational relations

 What do people want? ◦ How do people of different ages envision housing as they move into older adulthood? ◦ What are the priorities for housing as people move into older adulthood? ◦ How much diversity is there in the visions and priorities for housing among older adults?  What shapes this diversity?

 Given the constraints on people, what can people realistically have for housing as they move into older adulthood? ◦ What types of constraints exist? ◦ What is the basis of constraints?  E.g., money, culture, context, demography ◦ How do constraints connect to preferences?

 How wedded are people to their current residences? ◦ What does ‘aging-in-place’ mean for people? ◦ What shapes the desire to ‘age-in-place’?  Choice versus constraints  If choice, what are the preferences?  If constraints, what are the resource issues? ◦ How much diversity is there in the preference?

 Research Strategies ◦ Focus groups, in-depth interviews, surveys  Residents  Community organizations ◦ Attention to diversity of the county  Spatial  Cultural  Income  Demographic ◦ search/minneapolis_mn search/minneapolis_mn

 How are health and social services to be organized?  How is county planning to be (if at all) restructured?  How will the county maintain its tradition of excellence in service provision?

 Mission ◦ The mission of Hennepin County is to enhance the health, safety and quality of life of our residents and communities in a respectful, efficient and fiscally responsible way.  Vision ◦ We envision a future where residents are healthy and successful and where our communities are safe and vibrant. We will strive to meet and exceed expectations by engaging people and communities in developing innovative solutions to challenges. We will be a diverse, learning organization. We will partner with others to enhance the quality of life in Hennepin County and the region.  Overarching goals ◦ People are: healthy, protected and safe, self-reliant, assured due process, and mobile. 