Economic Indicators for Florida – An Update Christopher McCarty University of Florida Survey Research Center Bureau of Economic and Business Research LEARN Conference, Atlanta, Georgia March 29, 2010

Acknowledgments Stan Smith –Bureau of Economic and Business Research Amy Baker –Office of Economic and Demographic Research, The Florida Legislature Rebecca Rust –Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation

Indicators Consumer confidence Employment Housing Population

Consumer Confidence

What is Consumer Confidence? Survey-based measure Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan –500 completed RDD telephone interviews –Preliminary release second Friday, final release last Friday Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board –Approximately 3,500 completed mail out surveys –Release last Tuesday

Comparison of Indexes University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Current Conditions Overall Buying ConditionsBusiness Conditions in Area Current Personal Financial ConditionCurrent Job Availability in Area Future Expectations Business Conditions Over Next 12 MonthsBusiness Conditions in 6 Months Business Conditions Over Next 5 YearsJob Availability in Area in 6 Months Personal Financial Condition in 12 MonthsTotal Family Income in 6 Months

Comparison of U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence

Comparison of Florida and U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Comparison of Florida (UFSRC) to U.S. (Conference Board)

Employment

Long term unemployment (Unemployed but still looking for >26 weeks)

Housing

Median prices for Florida peaked at $257,800 in June 2006 Prices have fallen 49 percent from peak and are now $131,300 Previous lower median price was $130,900 in January 2010, then $128,900 in January 2002 Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Median Existing Home Price Change from Peak by Florida MSA Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Population

Can Florida rely on population growth as the main economic driver? Why it should –Population growth has always returned in the past –Even if growth is not as robust as it has been, a modest increase will still be a large increase –The Baby Boomers will still be inclined to move to warmer climates. Other popular destinations, such as North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, face similar problems as Florida Why it might not –There could be a change in behavior where retirees stay put –Florida has a large supply of single family homes and condominiums that, along with declining home ownership, may stall growth in construction even if population growth returns –Other sectors such as agriculture face serious challenges that may put more pressure on already weak economic sectors