EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011 Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center December 6, 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011 Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center December 6, 2011

Summary Metrics –Atlantic Tropical Storm Season –GPRA/New Metric –Regional, seasonal 3-month outlook skill, –Extended-Range skill Feedback –CFSv2 forecasts –GFS Future/New Products 2

39M (record #) hits in November, more than 1M/month since April,

4 Tropical Storm Forecasts ATLANTIC Named Storms / Hurricanes / Major Hurricanes / 3 An ACE range of 135%-215% of the median. / 133 EAST PACIFIC 9-15 named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes, / 5 An ACE range 45%-105% of the median. / 113 Official CPC product made in collaboration with NHC/NWS and HRD/NOAA

2011 ACE Outlook In A Historical Perspective ACE=∑ ∑ V max 2 for all named storms while at least TS strength (4x daily) is an above-normal season, reflecting continuation of high activity era. NS T

8-14-Day Official and NAEFS T, P Forecast Performance 6 Official NAEFS Official Official, T

8 ( 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) 7 GPRA: 48-month running mean of the HSS of 3-Month T outlooks at non-EC Stations SKILL GOAL SKILL ACTUAL

8 Skill*, DJF, JJA, T, P 3-Month Outlooks, (*Fractional improvement over random x 100) DJF T JJA TJJA P DJF P

Above-Average 1 – Month Forecast Skill 9

DJF 2010/2011 SST anomalies

T2m over land Global North America Precipitation AVE: AVE: Spatial mean L0 seasonal P anomaly correlation V2 Compares with V1 over NOAM during 2011

Spatial Mean L0 seasonal T anomaly correlation V2 Much Better than V1 over NOAM during 2011 Land T2m Global North America AVE: AVE: JJA2010

ObsL0 FcstL3 FcstL6 Fcst CFSv1 CFSv2 Nino34 DMI MDR Tropics/Sub-Tropics SST indices: V2 Much Lower Spread, More Accurate, than V1

Wheeler-Hendon Diagrams of GEFS, Statistical Model MJO Forecasts 14

V2 Forecast WH-MJO Index Much Better than V1

Future: Dynamic (Interactive) Verification Web Tool 6-10 day T forecast reliability October, 2009-September 2010, Official and automated day T forecast reliability October, 2009-September 2010, Official and automated. 16

Total Number of Forecasts by Fiscal Year 2007: : : : : 920 % of Forecasts With HSS > 10, HSS > 15, & HSS > 20 by Fiscal Year %, 53%, 44% %, 45%, 36% %, 53%, 43% %, 57%, 48% %, 63%, 52% Future: A New GPRA Metric

Future: Dynamic POE (dPOE) Web Tool Developed collaboratively with U. Arizona Enables user interaction with observed 3-month data Gives users numbers to associate with forecast classes. User feedback obtained by CLIMAS 18

Future: dPOE Will Allow users to ask and answer questions about the meaning of a forecast 19

Wishlist More coordination on access to data from hindcasts and model simulations, Coordination on model simulations to assess biases in the CFS, Collaboration on understanding (and documentation) of biases for GFS upgrades, Future of CFS? 20

Summary Metrics –Atlantic Tropical Storm Season –GPRA/New Metric –Regional, seasonal 3-month outlook skill, –Extended-Range skill Feedback –CFSv2 forecasts –GFS Future/New Products 21