California Energy Commission 2015 IEPR Self-Generation Forecast Sacramento, CA 2/26/15 Asish Gautam Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /

California Energy Commission Data Sources Past IEPR demand forecast relied on data from Photovoltaic (PV) incentive programs –California Solar Initiative, Emerging Renewables Program, New Solar Homes Partnership,Self- Generation Incentive Program Decline in PV cost and new financing methods encourage PV growth in absence of program specific incentives 2

California Energy Commission Data Sources How to capture growth occurring outside of programs and reflect energy and peak impacts for IEPR demand forecast Source: California Energy Commission Requested monthly PV interconnection data by sector for as part of Forms & Instructions 3

California Energy Commission Data Sources CPUC decision to publish post-CSI data will fill the gaps going forward Combined Heat and Power –Using updated data reported to CEC under Form CEC-1304 –Self Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) data 4

California Energy Commission Changes for 2015 Self-Gen Forecast Revising residential model to use retail rates instead of sector average rates –Residential load shape data requested on Forms & Instructions –Allows treatment of residential rate design on PV adoption and net metering –Revisions ongoing but expect ready for preliminary demand forecast 5

California Energy Commission Changes for 2015 Self-Gen Forecast (2) Updated PV production profiles from data supplied by CPUC Energy storage growing through the SGIP program Little performance data exists now but upcoming SGIP evaluation report on preliminary impacts from storage projects 6

California Energy Commission Changes for Self-Gen Forecast (3) Propose future Demand Analysis Working Group session to facilitate exchange of energy storage data and other information 7

California Energy Commission Uncertainties AB 327 Implementation –Residential retail rate redesign (R ) –Net Energy Metering redesign (R ) –Distribution Resources Planning –Many changes called for under AB 327 still under development Expiration of Federal Investment Tax Credit 8