CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Slides For A Possible CCMC Presentation 2013 Introduction:

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Presentation transcript:

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Slides For A Possible CCMC Presentation 2013 Introduction:

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Current IPS Systems IPS Advantage: Measures CMEs and corotating structures on their way to Earth Disadvantages: All arrays must map sources near their zenith, thus no information is available continuously. Single-site arrays produce less reliable IPS velocities than multi-site arrays. Small radio arrays provide information from only a few radio sources. Introduction:

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Currently Dedicated IPS Radio Systems The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m 2 ) operating at a nominal frequency of MHz. New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m 2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011) Scintillation (Radio source passing array beam)

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Density Turbulence  Scintillation index, m, is a measure of level of turbulence  Normalized Scintillation index, g = m(R) / g > 1  enhancement in  Ne g  1  ambient level of  Ne g < 1  rarefaction in  Ne A scintillation enhancement with respect to the ambient wind identifies the presence of a region of increased turbulence/density along the line- of-sight to the radio source. (Courtesy of P.K. Manoharan)

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS STELab IPS array near Mt. FujiSTELab IPS array systemsIPS line-of-sight response IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab) Current STELab IPS System

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS World-Wide IPS observation network Japan Mexico India Russia UK/EISCAT LOFAR) US-Australia Ooty 327MHz 、 16,000 ㎡ Pushchino103MHz 70,000 ㎡ MEXART 140MHz 、 10,000 ㎡ MWA MHz STEL Multi-Station 327MHz 2000 ㎡ ×3, 3500 ㎡ IPS Korea

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS New STELab IPS 327 MHz array in the Toyokawa System (3,432 m 2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011) Currently-Operated Dedicated IPS Radio Systems

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Currently-Operated Dedicated IPS Radio Systems The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m 2 ) operating at a nominal frequency of MHz. Single-site array Ooty, India

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS The Pushchino Radio Observatory 70,000 m MHz array, Russia (summer 2006) Now named the “Big Scanning Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute” (BSA LPI). Currently-Operated Dedicated IPS Radio Systems

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Currently-Operated Dedicated IPS Radio Systems The MEXART Array, Near Morelia, Mexico. Operates at 140 MHz. Half of the 9,600 m 2 area is now being used. The KSWC Array, Jeju, South Korea. Operates at 327 MHz. A small 32-tile system is being used. Estimate ~ 500 m 2 area.

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Other Potential Future IPS systems LOFAR (Western Europe) Some parts of the large multi-site multi-frequency 10 – 190 MHz system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing. Richard Fallows

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS MWA (Western Australia) Other Potential Future IPS systems 128 tiles are now operating. The system has the potential to obtain multi- frequency ( MHz IPS data, but this has not been tried so far.

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS UCSD IPS forecasts using STELab data Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. UCSD IPS WebPages Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013, Solar Phys., 285,

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS IPS tomography with additional radio sources can be provided at times intermediate to a one-day cadence. Time-Dependent Analysis Using Other IPS Systems The following case shows the insertion of an IPS source velocity from MEXART single-site analysis into what was primarily the STELab IPS UCSD 327 MHz kinematic tomography. The MEXART IPS velocity (that in this instance was nearly identical but intermediate in time to that from STELab) from 140 MHz data was inserted with appropriate line-of sight weighting for that frequency. Little change in the result is observed, as is appropriate in this instance. If a fast CME had erupted following the STELab observations it could have been “caught” by the IPS tomography.

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Fisheye velocity skymaps with additional radio sources Time-Dependent Analysis Using Other IPS Systems Analysis including MEXART source Analysis without MEXART source

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Other fittings – Other times Solar wind speeds measured by IPS model fitting using the same source (3C48) during April MEXARTSTEL (SWIFT) Mejia-Ambriz, J., et al., 2013, AGU 2013 Presentation, May, Cancoon, Mexico.

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS ● Fitting technique using: MEXART ( ◊ ) and STEL-SWIFT ( ∆ ). ● Multi-station technique with STEL stations ( * ). Time lags of the diffraction patterns propagating between separate stations. Comparison Mejia-Ambriz, J., et al., 2013, AGU 2013 Presentation, May, Cancoon, Mexico.

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Comparison between IPS Spectrum Fitting and Multi-Site Cross Correlation Velocity Methods Spectrum Fitting Method (Single-station meas.) Speed V 1st. =459km/s Axial Ratio=1.07 Spectral Index=3.8 3C /9/3 Cross Correlation Method (3-station meas.) Speed V 3st. = 457±13 km/s from IPS obs. for 3C273 in 2012 V3st. (km/s) V1st. (km/s) Correlation ~0.47 V 1st /V 3st =1.04±0.24 (Courtesy of M. Tokumaru) Tokumaru, M., et al., 2013, AOGS 2013 Presentation, June, Brisbane, Australia.

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Time-Dependent Velocity at 0.25 AU IHG Coordinates To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary (See Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013, Solar Phys., 285, )

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Time-Dependent Density at 0.25 AU IHG Coordinates To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary (See Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013, Solar Phys., 285, )

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Time-Dependent Radial Field at 0.25 AU, IHG Coordinates To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary (See Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013, Solar Phys., 285, )

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS ENLIL 3D-MHD modeling using WSA-GONG inputs 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary. (Recent Work) ENLIL WSA-GONG 3D-MHD 2011/08 to 2011/09 CASE STUDY Period on 26 September (center of plots) is an interesting example

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS ENLIL IPS Boundary 3D-MHD ENLIL 3D-MHD modeling using a 21.5 Rs 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary. (Recent Work) 2011/08 to 2011/09 CASE STUDY Period on 26 September (center of plots) is an interesting example Analysis Can Run Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. (Dusan, why didn’t you use the UCSD |B| inputs?) (Also see Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013, Solar Phys., 285, )

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Other IPS Boundary 3D-MHD Ooty IPS velocities and g-level densities. C.C. Wu HAF 3DMHD modeling from an 18 Rs 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary. (Wu, S.T., et al., 2001, J. Geophys. Res. 106, ) 3D-MHD HAF 3DMHD

CASS/UCSD Dusan_CCMC_2013 Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using IPS Other IPS Boundary 3D-MHD MS-FLUKSS 3D-MHD modeling from a 0.25AU 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary. (Kim, T. K., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp )