Pakistan: “A Country on the Brink”

Pakistan’s Creation Originally part of British India. The British initially widened the divide between the Muslims & Hindu’s in a strategy to maintain control. There were ethnic, political & religious disputes between the Muslims & Hindus in British India. Pakistan was formed in 1947 out of partition from British controlled India. During the split from India, there was a mass migration of over 15 Million. The Muslims were going to Pakistan as the Hindus were leaving for India. The creation of Pakistan was tumultuous, resulting in chaos, riots, deaths & crimes against humanity. This deepened the rift between Muslims and Hindus.

Partition: Partition left both India & Pakistan devastated socially & economically. Some of the atrocities committed between the Muslims & Hindus were widespread rape, pillaging & murder, bordering on genocide. This included the bombing of trains of immigrants by Hindus and even filling trains full of the dismembered bodies & sending them across the border into Pakistan.

The Early Years After Partition there was Pakistan & East Pakistan on the other side of India. East Pakistan rebelled and succeeded from Pakistan in the 1971 India/Pakistan was to become Bangladesh. Pakistan itself is divided into four main areas: Balochistan, North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), Punjab, & Sindh. Another province, Kashmir, is still under dispute with India & has been the cause of war between the countries in 1947, 1965, 1971 & 1999.

Jammu and Kashmir Dispute between Pakistan & India over the territory of Jammu and Kashmir goes back to the partition of Initially, the princely state of Kashmir was to join with Pakistan, but the Hindu Maharaja, Hari Singh, refused. Pakistan tried to scare him with military force. In response, Singh signed an article of accession, Kashmir would join India if India helped repel Pakistani forces. Territory has been disputed ever since.

Pakistan and India India & Pakistan have been archrivals since the partition and disputes over Kashmir have propagated this. They compete politically, economically and militarily. They are both nuclear nations with limited first strike ability. Given the mutual hatred and history of war between these two nations and India’s rising prosperity, there is a high level of instability in the region.

Pakistan Today Although the 4 provinces in Pakistan are officially united, each one has its individual culture and identity. Some even have strong separatist sentiments such as the NWFP which harbors Al Qaeda.

Politics Pakistan goes back and forth from being a democracy and being ruled by a military dictator after a coup. Pakistani politics have a tradition of being underhanded, violent, and volatile.

History of Pakistan’s Political Leaders 1948: Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of Pakistan, dies 1951: Jinnah’s successor, Liaquat Ali Khan is assassinated. 1956: Constitution proclaims Pakistan as Islamic Republic. 1958: General Ayyub Khan becomes president. 1969: General Yahya Khan takes over. 1973: Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (Benazir’s father) becomes PM. 1979: General Zia ul-Haq overthrows and hangs Bhutto in a military coup & becomes president. Benazir goes into exile, returns in : Gen. Zia dies in mysterious plane crash. Bhutto’s Pakistan’s Peoples Party wins election & she becomes PM. 1990: Benazir Bhutto is dismissed as PM on charges of incompetence & corruption.

History of Pakistan’s Leaders Continued 1991: PM Nawaz Sharif begins economic liberalization. 1993: PM Sharif resigns under pressure from military. General election brings Bhutto back to power. 1996: President Leghari dismisses Bhutto’s government amid corruption allegations. Nawaz Sharif returns as PM after his Pakistan Muslim League wins elections. 1999: Bhutto and her husband are convicted of corruption and sentenced. Benazir flees to exile. Later that year Sharif is overthrown by General Pervez Musharraf in a military coup. 2002: Musharraf grants himself new powers including the right to dismiss parliament. 2007: Bhutto’s and Sharif’s parties protest Musharraf. Musharraf takes over media and communication networks.

Benazir Bhutto's Timeline

The Musharraf Era Musharraf came to power in 1999 after a military coup and was self appointed as president in Musharraf has enjoyed western support due to his announced intentions in 2002 to combat extremists in Pakistan. However the legitimacy of his rule is dubious. In 2007 he suspended the constitution and jailed several supreme court members right before they were about to evaluate the constitutional validity of his 2007 election. During Musharraf’s time Pakistan enjoyed impressive economic performance. However, Musharraf’s approval rating has plummeted to a low of 15%.

Pakistan, The U.S. and the War on Terror The US has supported Pakistan and Musharraf ever since he pledged to be an ally to the US in the war on terror. The US has placed its faith in Musharraf by appropriating over $10B in foreign aid since 9/11. This is in stark contrast to the sanctions the US had against Pakistan before Musharraf pledged his support. However, the question now is whether or not the US should continue to support Musharraf since he is now widely unpopular.

Should the US continue to support Musharraf? YES: The US is familiar with him, he offers continuity. A different leader could be worse politically. He is more moderate than Sharif and the PPP. NO: The aid given him has done little. He is undemocratic and vastly unpopular. By continuing to support him the US loses the credit it has gained in the Middle East by supporting an Islamic nation.

Pakistan’s Political Parties PML (Q) - Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-I-Azam) –“King’s Party” - staunch supporters of Musharraf, overall very close to military –Very Conservative, right wing PML (N) - Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) –Split from PML (Q) after 1999 coup & Nawaz Sharif was exiled –Led by Sharif, centered in Punjab

PPP - Pakistan People’s Party –Led by Benazir Bhutto until assassination –Now headed by Asif Zardari & Bilawal Bhutto Zardari –Centered in Sindh, also strong in Punjab –Socialist, democracy advocates MMA - Majlis-i-Amal –Alliance of 6 major religious parties –Formed after Musharraf joined War on Terror –Controlled Baluchistan & NWFP fm –Supportive of a theocracy

ANP - Awami National Party –Secular, nationalistic Pashtuns –Centered in NWFP –Close ties to Afghanistan’s president Hamid Karzai –Want to reform tribal political systems MQM - Muttahida Quami Movement –Based in Sindh –Member of pro-Musharraf coalition –Considered militant and unreliable

Election Outlook Elections scheduled for Jan. 8th Bhutto assassinated Dec. 27th –Two alternative versions to assassination Election Delayed –PPP and PML (N) wanted elections held as planned –Electoral Commission decides to push election back to Feb. 18th Supposedly independent, likely controlled by Musharraf

Army withdrawal from politics Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani now in charge Kiyani ordered withdrawal from politics –300 army officers told to leave their ministerial positions –Kiyani ordered soldiers, officers not to take sides in election –U.S. has demanded military stay out of political affairs, threatening to slow aid if it doesn’t ($5.4 bil to fight militants so far)

February 2008 Election Results 268 total seats PML (Q) - 42 PPP PML (N) - 85 MMA - 3 ANP - 10 MQM - 19

Muree Declaration PPP and PML (N) make deal to share power in Punjab, federal government PPP accepts Sharif’s demands to restore 60 sacked judges PML (N) drops campaign pledges to rewrite constitution, impeach Musharraf

Secularism in NWFP After Feb. elections, ANP forms coalition with PPP to control NWFP MMA’s mullahs ousted from power Hopefully close ties to Hamid Karzai will lead to greater border cooperation Hoping to reform politics in region to reduce mullah’s control

What has new coalition done ? Freed all 60 sacked judges –Pledged to reinstate them, but no date set Appointed Raza Gillana as PM –PPP loyalist, likely to pass off post to Zardari after by-elections Zardari not completely alienating Musharraf –Brought MQM into coalition in Sindh

The Future in Pakistan Pakistan will crumble into 4 states Islamists like Taliban leader Meshud will turn Pakistan into an Iran-like theocracy Pakistan’s nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of Islamists or worse…terrorists. Can the army prevent these doomsday scenarios or will the army succumb to Islamist elements as well?