1 Nitzan Carmeli 23.06.2014 MSc Advisors: Prof. Haya Kaspi, Prof. Avishai Mandelbaum Industrial Engineering and Management Technion Empirical Support:

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Presentation transcript:

1 Nitzan Carmeli MSc Advisors: Prof. Haya Kaspi, Prof. Avishai Mandelbaum Industrial Engineering and Management Technion Empirical Support: Dr. Galit Yom-Tov

o Interactive Voice Response (Voice Response Unit) 2 Introduction Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Agents salaries are typically 60%-80% of the overall operating budget in call centers 3 Introduction Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Agents salaries are typically 60%-80% of the overall operating budget in call centers o Properly designed IVR system increase customer satisfaction increase loyalty decrease staffing costs 3 Introduction Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Agents salaries are typically 60%-80% of the overall operating budget in call centers o Properly designed IVR system increase customer satisfaction increase loyalty decrease staffing costs Customers self-serve Increase profit 3 Introduction Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Call Center with an IVR system 4 Introduction IVR servers Abandonment Success Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Returns P ? ?

o Methodologies for evaluating IVRs o Quantifying IVR usability and cost-effectiveness o Agent time being saved by handling the call, or part of the call, in the IVR o Original reasons for calling vs. experience (by analyzing end-to-end calls) Suhm B. and Peterson P. (2002, 2009) 5 Literature Review Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Methodologies for evaluating IVRs o Quantifying IVR usability and cost-effectiveness o Agent time being saved by handling the call, or part of the call, in the IVR o Original reasons for calling vs. experience (by analyzing end-to-end calls) Suhm B. and Peterson P. (2002, 2009) 5 Literature Review 30% completed service in IVR Only 1.6% completed it successfully Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Methodologies for evaluating IVRs o Quantifying IVR usability and cost-effectiveness o Agent time being saved by handling the call, or part of the call, in the IVR o Original reasons for calling vs. experience (by analyzing end-to-end calls) Suhm B. and Peterson P. (2002, 2009) o Designing and optimizing IVRs o Human-Factor-Engineering o Mainly comparing broad (shallow) designs and narrow (deep) designs. Examples: Schumacher R. et al. (1995), Commarford P. et al. (2008) and many more. 5 Literature Review 30% completed service in IVR Only 1.6% completed it successfully Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

6 Literature Review Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Broad (shallow) design: Narrow (deep) design:

o Reducing IVR service times o The IVR menu as a service tree – reducing the average time to reach a desired service Salcedo-Sanz S. et al. (2010) o Stochastic search in a Forest o Models of stochastic search in the context of R&D projects o Optimality of index policy. Denardo E.V., Rotblum U.G., Van der Heyden L. (2004) Granot D. and Zuckerman D. (1991) 7 Literature Review Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Modeling customer flow within an IVR system o Using EDA to estimate model parameters and identify usability problems: has actually inspired our theoretical model o Using optimal search solutions and empirical analysis to compare alternative designs and infer design implications 8 Research Goals Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

9 Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Adapted from an actual IVR of a commercial enterprise

10 o Notations s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

10 o Notations s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

10 o Notations s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

10 o Notations s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

10 o Notations s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

10 o Notations s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Customer search o Customers pay for each unit of time they spend in the IVR o Customers receive reward when reaching a desired service o Customers may look for more than one service o Customers have finite patience 11 Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Customer search o At each stage the customer can choose: 1.Terminate the search and leave the system 12 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Customer search o At each stage the customer can choose: 1.Terminate the search and leave the system 2.Terminate the search and opt-out to an agent 12 s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary opt-out

12 s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary opt-out o Customer search o At each stage the customer can choose: 1.Terminate the search and leave the system 2.Terminate the search and opt-out to an agent 3.Move forward to one of i’s immediate successors,

12 s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary opt-out o Customer search o At each stage the customer can choose: 1.Terminate the search and leave the system 2.Terminate the search and opt-out to an agent 3.Move forward to one of i’s immediate successors, 4.Move backward to i’s immediate predecessor,

12 s a b c de f g Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary opt-out o Customer search o At each stage the customer can choose: 1.Terminate the search and leave the system 2.Terminate the search and opt-out to an agent 3.Move forward to one of i’s immediate successors, 4.Move backward to i’s immediate predecessor, 5.Move backward to the root vertex,

o IVR flow animation IVR flow animation 13 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o States 14 Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Model Parameters - Edges 15 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

16 Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Model Parameters - Edges 17 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

18 o Model Parameters - Leaves Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

18 o Model Parameters - Leaves o Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Search candidates 19 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 19 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 19 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 19 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 19 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 19 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 19 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 19 s a b c de f g Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 20 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 21 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 21 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 22 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Search candidates 23 Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

Maximal Tree Algorithm 24 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

Maximal Tree Algorithm 24 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

Maximal Tree Algorithm 24 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

Maximal Tree Algorithm 24 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Search Model

o Maximal Tree Algorithm 25 Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

26 Search Model Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Backward induction – Index calculation z 27 MDP Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Backward induction – Index calculation 28 MDP Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Backward induction – Index calculation 29 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary MDP

o Backward induction – Index calculation 30 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary MDP

o Backward induction – Index calculation 30 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary MDP

o Backward induction – Index calculation 31 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary MDP

32 MDP Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

32 MDP Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

32 MDP Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o A medium bank o About 450 working agents per day (~200 during peak hours) o Call by call data from May 1 st, 2008 to June 30 th, 2009 o Overall Summary of calls 33 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Case Study IVR CallsTotal% Out of totalAverage per weekday # Served only by IVR27,709, %50,937 # Requesting also agent service17,280, %31,765 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o A medium bank o About 450 working agents per day (~200 during peak hours) o Call by call data from May 1 st, 2008 to June 30 th, 2009 o Overall Summary of calls 33 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Case Study IVR CallsTotal% Out of totalAverage per weekday # Served only by IVR27,709, %50,937 # Requesting also agent service17,280, %31,765 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary 10% of IVR calls – Identification only!

34 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Case Study

34 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Case Study Requested by less than 2% of the calls

o Estimating abandonments 35 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Case Study

o Estimating abandonments 35 Threshold time Case Study Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Estimating abandonments 36 Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Case Study Parameter Estimates ComponentsMixing Proportions (%) ScaleShapeMeanStandard Deviation 1. Lognormal Lognormal Lognormal Lognormal Lognormal Lognormal

o Example - Comparing different designs (based on frequent services in our database) 37 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Example - Comparing different designs 38 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Servicer Type 1 t ser (mean, sec) t F (mean, sec) P Play account balance200c Account Summary Recent Account Activity400c Account Activity Today Selected Securities Stock Exchange Israel Transfer between Account Credit Card Vouchers600c

o Example - Comparing different designs o Design A - original: Optimal candidate : Customer revenue: 39 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Example - Comparing different designs o Design B - deep: Optimal candidate: Customer revenue: 40 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Example - Comparing different designs o Design C - shallow: Optimal candidate: Customer revenue: 41 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Comparing different designs – Organization point of view Example, assume: o 10,000 calls per day o Cost per unit of time of communication = NIS/sec o Cost per second of agent call = 0.03 NIS/sec (based on UG project) 42 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Design A - Original Design B – Deep Design C - Shallow Customer revenue Cost of communication 4,7365,6064,826 Revenue from saved agent time 30,564 Total organization profit 25,82824,95825,738

o How to design an IVR tree to encourage the use of certain services? 43 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o How to design an IVR tree to encourage the use of certain services? o Customer learning? 43 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o How to design an IVR tree to encourage the use of certain services? o Customer learning? o Do customers navigate optimally? o Services with low demand – lack of interest or lack of patience? 43 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o How to design an IVR tree to encourage the use of certain services? o Customer learning? o Do customers navigate optimally? o Services with low demand – lack of interest or lack of patience? o Sensitivity to customer patience? o Anticipating long waiting in agent queue – does it affect customer behavior? 43 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o How to design an IVR tree to encourage the use of certain services? o Customer learning? o Do customers navigate optimally? o Services with low demand – lack of interest or lack of patience? o Sensitivity to customer patience? o Anticipating long waiting in agent queue – does it affect customer behavior? o Using IVR and state information to control customers behavior examples: return later, use IVR for service 43 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Model Implications Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Stochastic models of customer flow within the IVR o Comparing IVR designs o Insights for better designs o Supplementing previous knowledge in HFE, CS fields o Data analysis as a basis for theoretical models o Can be easily modified to other self-service systems 44 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Summary and Future research Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary

o Stochastic models of customer flow within the IVR o Comparing IVR designs o Insights for better designs o Supplementing previous knowledge in HFE, CS fields o Data analysis as a basis for theoretical models o Can be easily modified to other self-service systems 44 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Summary and Future research Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Example: Web search engines Hassan A. et al. (2010)

o Stochastic models of customer flow within the IVR o Comparing IVR designs o Insights for better designs o Supplementing previous knowledge in HFE, CS fields o Data analysis as a basis for theoretical models o Can be easily modified to other self-service systems o Interesting open questions: o How does one recognize an abandonment from self-service when “seeing” one? o Interrelation between customer-IVR interaction and customer-agent interaction? 44 System Description Introduction Literature Review Theoretical Model Empirical Analysis Model Implications Summary and Discussion Summary and Future research Introduction Literature Review Research Goals Search Model MDP Case Study Model Implications Summary Example: Web search engines Hassan A. et al. (2010)