The Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis for the Decades of the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s The Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis for the Decades of the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s Chris Landsea NOAA/Hurricane Research Division Miami, Florida, USA AMS Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Conference May 7th, 2004 Co-Authors: John Gamache, Steve Feuer, Joyce Berkeley, William Bredemeyer, David Glenn, Donna Thomas and Ryan Ellis Special Thanks: Michael Chenoweth, Cary Mock, Charlie Neumann, and the NHC Best Track Change Committee Acknowledgements: NOAA/OGP grant (GC02-093)

NOAA Dork Logo Uses of HURDAT

Open Atlantic Ocean Differences 1911 Hurricane Season 2000 Hurricane Season

Data Sources for the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s PRIMARY marine and land station observations from the Historical Weather Map series ship observations included in COADS individual surface station records (Original Monthly Records) archived ship reports and logs from NCDC articles and records published in Monthly Weather Review SUPPLEMENTARY books with historical retrospectives technical memoranda journalistic accounts

Using Ship Observations to Estimate the Hurricane’s Location

Estimating Intensity with and without Aircraft Reconnaissance

The Beaufort Wind Scale Beaufort Knots Description Number 0 < 1 Calm Light air Light breeze Gentle breeze Moderate breeze Fresh breeze Strong breeze Near gale Gale Strong gale Storm Violent storm 12 > 63 Hurricane

ATLANTIC PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS P(MB) GLFMEX <25N 25-35N 35-45N KRAFT P(MB) P(IN) ) GLFMEX Vmax(kt)=10.627*(1013-p)** n =664; r= ) <25N Vmax(kt)=12.016*(1013-p)** n =1033; r= ) 25-35N Vmax(kt)=14.172*(1013-p)** n =922; r= ) 35-45N Vmax(kt)=16.086*(1013-p)** n =492; r= )For Kraft Vmax(kt)=14.000*(1013-p)** n =13; r= ?? Estimating the Central Pressure (Pr – Pc)/(Pe – Pc) = exp(-RMW/R)

Raw Data (Gales) for 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

Historical Weather Map Observations for the 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

1911/ REVISION: /23/1911 M= 8 2 SNBR= 457 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS= /23/1911 M= 9 4 SNBR= 459 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=2 * * *** /23* * * * /23* * * * *** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** ** /24* * * * /24* * * * *** *** ** *** *** ** *** ** *** ** /25* * * * /25* * * * *** ** *** ** *** ** *** ** Revised “Best Track” (HURDAT) Data for 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

Moderate adjustments to the track are made on the 23rd and 24th to better agree with available ship observations indicating a position farther north than originally shown... Track extended an additional day based upon HWM and Cline analyses... For the intensity at landfall (which may also in this case be the peak intensity of the system), evidence was available from winds, pressure, storm surge and damages. Highest observed winds were 82 kt in Charleston, with an estimate that the maximum that they reached after the anemometer was disabled was 92 kt. However, reducing for the high-bias of the instrument at the time alters these to 63 kt observed and 70 kt estimated (Fergusson and Covert 1924). Altering these to a maximum 1 min wind (Powell et al. 1996) gives 67 kt observed and 74 kt estimated.... A run of the inland pressure deficit decay model (also in Ho et al.) suggest a central pressure at the coast of 970 mb from the Atlantic coast model (South Carolina to New England) and 974 mb from the Florida peninsula model mb central pressure suggests 84 kt from the subtropical pressure-wind relationship. Ho et al.'s analysis of 27 nmi RMW has been reconfirmed and is close to that expected from climatology for this latitude of landfall and central pressure (25 nmi - Vickery et al. 2000), so no large deviation from 84 kt would be expected. A storm tide of 10.6 feet was reported in Charleston with moderate wind forced damage. Given that it is unlikely that Charleston experienced the exact peak winds of the hurricane at landfall, a value higher than that observed (and even estimated with some caution being taken) would be reasonable. Thus 85 kt maximum 1 min winds are analyzed for this hurricane at landfall near the Georgia/South Carolina border near 0930 UTC on the 28th. This is at the low end of a Category 2, which is what is analyzed for conditions occurring in South Carolina... After landfall, a run of the Kaplan and DeMaria's (1995) inland decay model gave 60 kt at 28th/12 UTC, 47 kt at 18 UTC, 36 kt at 29th/00 UTC, and 30 kt at 06 UTC. Highest observed winds within 2 hours of these times were 73, 56, 52, and 37 kt... Winds in HURDAT slightly increased at 18 UTC on the 28th and reduced on the 29th and 30th, accordingly. The system is characterized on the 30th as extratropical in its decay over land, due to being absorbed by frontal system. Metadata File for the 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes #/Date Time Lat Lon Max SS# RMW Cent. Envir. OCI States Wind Press. Press. Affected 3-8/11/ Z 30.3N 87.5W 70kt (985mb) 1013mb 235nmi AFL1,AL1 4-8/28/ Z 32.2N 80.7W 85kt 2 27nmi 972mb 1014mb 230nmi GA1,SC2 4-9/14/ Z 30.3N 88.4W 65kt 1 60nmi (988mb) 1007mb 155nmi AL1,AFL1 6-10/16/ Z 27.1N 97.4W 70kt (985mb) 1012mb 235nmi ATX1 1-6/28/ Z 27.1N 97.4W 65kt (988mb) 1009mb 175nmi ATX1 3-9/3/ Z 34.7N 76.5W 75kt 1 38nmi 976mb 1016mb 200nmi NC None

Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project Picture from: "Florida's Hurricane History", by Jay Barnes through 1914 reanalysis submitted to NHC Remainder of 1910s, 1920s and 1930s being reanalyzed currently Pre-reconnaissance era completed by summer 2005