Climate Sensitivity Succession Regime Shifts Integration Current Proposal: The Dynamics of Change Next Proposal (due in < 4 years!!) Human Dimensions K-12.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Sensitivity Succession Regime Shifts Integration Current Proposal: The Dynamics of Change Next Proposal (due in < 4 years!!) Human Dimensions K-12 Education

Climate Ecosystem Processes Sensitivity and Response to Change Climate Sensitivity

Climate Rate and Trajectory of Successional Changes in Ecosystem Processes Sensitivity and Response to Change Frequency and Intensity of Disturbances (Flooding, Fire, Thermokarst, Insect/Pathogens) Sensitivity and Response to Change Abundance of Key Species Succession

Climate Rate and Trajectory of Successional Changes in Ecosystem Processes Sensitivity and Response to Change Frequency and Intensity of Disturbances (Flooding, Fire, Thermokarst, Insect/Pathogens) Sensitivity and Response to Change Abundance of Key Species Thresholds and Regime Shifts

Integration and Synthesis “…integrate our understanding at larger temporal and spatial scales and explore interactions among processes occurring at different scales…” Watershed studies Landscape and regional modeling

Ecosystem Services Human Behavior (society, politics, economics Interior Alaska as a Human-Ecological System

Succession 1) How has recent climate change influenced disturbance regimes and successional development? Develop predictive relationships between interannual climate variability & patterns of glacial melt and discharge H 2 O + nutrient delivery to floodplain environments S1 Number, size, & severity of fires Ecological consequences: e.g., organic layer thickness, soil moisture, permafrost thaw S2

Succession 2) How do legacies and disturbances interact to change abundances of key animals, plants and microbes through succession, & what are the consequences for ecosystem function? Disturbance legacies (i.e., siltation, burn severity) Interact with climate variation & vegetation development? Develop models for effect on soil temp, soil moisture and permafrost S3 Influence successional trajectories? Develop rules for legacy effects for successional models S4

Succession Successional dynamics and ecosystem processes Key species and functional types (native, invasive, plants, insects, pathogens) S5 Vertebrate herbivores S6 Microbial communities: (baseline characterization among successional stages and soil horizons) S7

Workshop