The Threat of Dengue Fever - Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean An AIACC Project at The University.

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Presentation transcript:

The Threat of Dengue Fever - Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean An AIACC Project at The University of the West Indies, Mona and Caribbean Epidemiology Centre

A. Papers that will be published at the end of this project that will advance scientific knowledge 1.The extent of the association between climate and the incidence of dengue across the Caribbean region and the dominance of this feature in comparison to other linkages. 2. Identification and evaluation of adaptive options to ameliorate the impact of climate on this disease. 3. Prediction of future dengue impacts - short-term (decadal) and long term (next yrs) - and adaptations based on global change scenarios. 4. Changing patterns of knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) to climate change/variability and disease, in Caribbean populations..

The Culprit (Vector) Also the dengue mosquito

KEY ANALYSES AND METHODS TO BE USED. #1 Association of Climate and DiseaseU( C1#1.#1S#1.Edand Retrospective and prospective studies of the occurrence of dengue fever, its vectors and climate indicators in target communities. GIS studies and mapping of climate, disease and vector populations. Development of climate and epidemiological databases. Statistical analysis: correlation studies of these variables. Test for the influence of other variables such as population growth, socio-economic situations and environmental factors.

Paper # 2 Identification and evaluation of adaptive options To demonstrate in the pilot projects what strategies will work best in prevention of disease transmission in times of climate change. To develop and test evaluation tools for identification of vulnerability and adaptation indicators. To disseminate to stakeholders – community, the scientific bodies,etc. – the findings of these studies. To encourage the implementation of prevention and control methods identified in the studies. In this community-based intervention, incentives will be provided for the execution of the program.

Paper # 3 Prediction of future impacts and adaptation Downscaling/Scenario building/ Modelling of climate situations in association with disease transmission. The demonstration of the sensitivity of present day socio- economic variables impacting on disease and climate issues and the visualizing of future events, with or without adaptive measures. Devising a workable early warning system. Outlining steps necessary for communities to achieve short-term and long-term achievement of adaptive measures.

Paper #4 Dissemination of information Evaluation of the findings and adaptive interventions. Dissemination of the information gained in these studies to all stakeholders including community, policy makers, etc. Based on these demonstrated results, to visualize the impact of climate change on other diseases such as FBDs, VBDs, stresses. Make new proposals for execution of further climate- change/health studies

Incorporations from this workshop into the dengue and climate change project 1. GIS and Mapping Skills. 2. Integrated Assessment skills. 3. Scenario building skills. 4.Use of coping range strategies for identification of vulnerability and application of adaptive responses. 5.Vulnerability and Adaptive concepts. 6.Risk, hazard and disaster assessments.