Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest Report from the Scientific Project Manager 7th COSMO GENERAL MEETING 18 – 21 September 2006 Bucharest Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest Report from the Scientific Project Manager Scientific activities will be presented by WP coordinators and by our colleagues. I will report only general comments about our activities during the past year

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest Boundary Conditions for activities planning in COSMO Perspectives in European Numerical Forecasting  GCM  10 km horiz. resolution  LAM  ~1 km horiz. Resolution  Assimilation of frequent/high density data  New developments are required in the new generation of models  Direct model output attractive for users (hydrology, air quality)!!!  New evaluation/verification procedures  Model adaptation/probabilistic interpretation  Increasing development of Ensemble Prediction Systems both as a complement of deterministic forecasting and for assimilation systems

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest COSMO Longer-term perspectives (3-5 years) 1. Develop and improve ensemble prediction systems based on LM (including cloud resolving scale) 2. Assimilation of ‘all’ available observations sfc / profiles / radar / satellites… high resolution also slowly-changing information (soil moisture, vegetation state, etc) 3. LM performance known, critically discussed and improved Need for more collaboration with other Consortia Mathias Rotach Talk

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest Priority Projects  To better concentrate joint COSMO efforts  To optimize the use of COSMO human resources  To facilitate management related to goals which are Considered to be prioritary Priority Projects introduced in 2005 Problems related to many activities and lack of resources

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest The present scientific organization of COSMO WG1WG2WG3WG4WG5WG6 Scientific Working Groups COSMO Priority Projects TACKLE DEFICIENCES IN QPF RK LM_Z 1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA SIR SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6 UTCS INTERPRETATION SREPS COMMON VERIFICATION – CONDITIONAL VERIFICATION

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest  16th Meeting of the COSMO STC Zürich, December 1 and 2, 2005  12th Meeting of the COSMO SAC DWD - Offenbach, 3-4 May 2006  13th Meeting of the COSMO SAC ARPA-SIM - Bologna, 7-8 Sept  17th Meeting of the COSMO STC Bucharest, General Meeting 2006 & WGs and Projects meetings & Reporting

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006  Some of the Projects are still suffering for lack of human resources. For some projects we had tasks without FTE committed and other tasks too crowded.  We still have quite relevant problems about communications. Reports are not delivered on time and, in several cases, not delivered at all. : our COSMO spirit should increase!!!

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest Necessity to speed-up the procedure to define activities and projects  May 2005  SAC (WP Coordinators + SPM) defines a preliminary list of projects fitting COSMO strategy  General Meeting parallel sessions: collection of proposals and fine- tuning of projects  SAC defines a priority list to be submitted to the decisions of STC  STC selects a limited (one-digit) numbers of “top priority projects”  WP coordinators identify Project Leaders  Project Leaders prepare a detailed Project description and a clear project plan (project activities, human resources, milestones)  STC gives the final approval of the projects  STC members assigns human resources to the projects  Final allocation of FTEs after several iterations  Mid of January 2006  May 2006  The Projects years will be redefined from October to September to be synchronized with the COSMO year.  Projects should be drafted (almost ready) for the SAC meeting of September.  Project drafts will be available on the WEB after the SAC meeting of September.  Projects will be finalized after the contributions coming from the GM discussions  Projects approval by STC will be done at the end of the general meeting.    Feedback by STC to project leaders before October the 15th  The project leaders will interact directly with STC members as regards the allocation of FTEs on the different project  Commitments to PL‘s: Nov 15  Mid November 2006

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006  The paucity of scientific publications is one of the criticality within COSMO. Scientific papers can be included in the list of deliverables of COSMO projects.  It is important to have on the WEB an updated list of publications related to COSMO and also of presentations at meetings.

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006  The COSMO WEB: the management of the web is now working but the content must be revised and updated regularly.  It is necessary to have a common name for our model. Different names associated to the different national applications induce confusion in the people outside COSMO.

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006  Evaluation of the FTE actually devoted to the Projects by the COSMO Partners: the computation has been performed and discussed.  Results will be presented at the STC during the general meeting.

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006 SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006: COSMO delegation As decided during the 2005 EWGLAM/SRNWP meeting held in Slovenia, each Consortium will have 15 minutes for the presentation by the SPM and 2 hours to give scientific presentations in the following thematic areas:  Assimilation  Numerics and coupling numerics/physics  Physics  Predictability and EPS

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest 12th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee DWD, Offenbach, 3-4 May th Meeting of the Scientific Advisory Committee ARPA-SIM, Bologna, 7-8 September 2006 SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006: COSMO delegation  Assimilation C.Schraff : Overview and strategy on data assimilation. The 1DVAR projects to assimilate satellite data. D.Leun: The LHN scheme of COSMO  Numerics and coupling numerics/physics J.Steppeler: Overview and strategy on Numerics. The LMZ including coupling Num. &Phys., D.Cesari: The Semi-Implicit Semi-Lagrangian version of LM_Z  Physics M.Arpagaus: Overview and strategy on LM Physics. D.Mironov: The UTCS project  Predictability and EPS P.Eckert: COSMO ensemble systems C. Marsigli:the COSMO SREPS project

Tiziana Paccagnella COSMO General Meeting Bucharest COSMO Longer-term perspectives (3-5 years) 1. Develop and improve ensemble prediction systems based on LM (including cloud resolving scale) 2. Assimilation of ‘all’ available observations sfc / profiles / radar / satellites… high resolution also slowly-changing information (soil moisture, vegetation state, etc) 3. LM performance known, critically discussed and improved Need for more collaboration with other Consortia Mathias Rotach Talk

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