COPC Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Fred Toepfer 15 November 2007

2 Outline Background NUOPC Defined NUOPC Vision (2015) Potential Benefits Launching NUOPC Phase I NUOPC Management Structure Interim Committees PM and Staff Tasks Implementation Strategy and Schedule Info & Outreach Briefings Current Status

3 Background & Current Status Oct 05: Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary NWP Feb 06: Workshop investigated potential for increased collaboration –Recommended review of alternatives for NWP coordination May 06: Tri-Agency memo established TT to analyze alternatives for increased collaboration with the following goals: –Accelerating improvements in operational performance –Creating opportunities for a more focused National research effort –Leveraging scarce resources Aug 06: TT defined the alternatives –Focused on next-generation systems for global numerical weather prediction allowing for possible later expansion into other areas of numerical prediction. Jan 07: Tri-agency selected Alternative 2 -- “Coordinated Research & Development with Coordinated Transition and Operations” Mar 07: Initiated working groups to define Management Plan, Concept of Operations, Implementation Plan, ROM Costs for phased approach Sep 07: Review and approval of NUOPC documentation and approach. Oct 9, 2007: Tri-Agency Principals approved NUOPC Phase I.

4 NUOPC DEFINED NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri- agency management organization leading to a unified global modeling system with: –Common modeling architecture (CMA), coding standards, metrics, transition processes – to the degree required to share technology and eliminate unnecessary duplication –Common development and implementation of ESMF –Cooperation and coordination at the technology level –Common operational global ensemble and post processing by design –Coordinated research needs representing National global modeling research requirements –Developmental test support and focused research seed money to accelerate transition of critical technology NUOPC is not: –An R&D or acquisition program –A unified management system for operations or acquisition –A unification of agency missions

5 NUOPC Vision (2015) A National System with a Tri-Agency commitment to address common requirements Multi-component system with interoperable components built upon common standards and a framework such as the ESMF Managed ensemble diversity –significantly improve forecast accuracy –quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty Joint ensemble –to produce most probable forecast e.g. high impact weather –Mission Specific ensemble products Drive high-resolution regional/local predictions Drive other down stream models Establish a national global NWP research agenda to accelerate development and transition

6 Potential Benefits A National System to focus on National Needs Accelerated improvement of a National Weather Operational Prediction Capability –Forecast Accuracy –Quantified Forecast uncertainty Improved agency capability to drive downstream applications Increased efficiency through use of shared resources Better operational backup Enhanced research coordination Response to GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG recommendations

7 Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09 Phase I Tasks Begin Phase II Implementation IOC-1 Committees/Panels work tasks PM & Staff Review Interagency Review & Coord Committee Tasks Decision Brief to Principals StaffESG Approve Standards Draft Standards Reports Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS PM & Staff integrate Committee task results PM & Staff review committees’ progress Coord Appoint Agencies Appoint Committee Reps Follow up Jan 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Committee Reports to PM & Staff Apr 08Jul 08Oct 08Jan 09Apr 08 ESG Approve & Hire PM Select Jan 08

8 Program Manager NUOPC Executive Steering Group Infrastructure & Configuration Control Performance Metrics Testing Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Operational Oversight Committee NUOPC Management Structure Deputy Program Manager AF Liaison Navy Liaison NOAA Liaison Admin Staff (2) NOAA Coordinators (2) Navy Coordinators (2) AF Coordinators (2) NUOPC COMMITTEES Nonresident Part-time Staff Resident Full-time Staff Technology Transition Review Panel Information Assurance Panel Mixed Staff and Outside Advisors

9 Interim Committees Goals: –Minimize operational center disruption –Achieve common model architecture objectives while sustaining developmental headway –Achieve full stakeholder support –Develop well-defined standards that will focus research community participation and accelerate development Membership –Maintain operational center/primary developer control –Include representatives from operational centers and other stakeholders –By invitation/nomination, ESG approves Next steps: –Approve detailed committee procedures –Finalize charter for committees –Contact operational centers & other stakeholders, request for nominations –ESG approve nominations

10 Proposed Committee Process Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders) Committee goals, schedule, agenda established at pre-meeting between PM, primary stakeholders, committee chairs Membership by nomination, ESG approves: Primary stakeholders (vote), broad community representation (input) NUOPC staff provide coordination, write reports, maintain schedule and focus on agenda Concise committee output: standards, impact, cost, implementation plan, CONOPS PM reviews for completeness, provides agency coordination, ESG approves Minimize impact on operations: NUOPC funds travel, meeting location rotates, concise agenda and goals

11 PM & Staff Tasks Establish initial common standards for architecture (software, data formats, etc.) Approve interim committee reports: –Infrastructure & Configuration Control Committee Common modeling architecture, standards, information assurance, and configuration control –Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Common requirements/operational needs, technical transition & transition processing, and research investment plan –Performance & Metrics Committee Common performance metrics (ops & technical) –Operational Oversight Committee Unified ensemble operations concept Develop five-year implementation plan based on committee reports: Approved by PM Establish and agree on NUOPC budget through 2015: Established by PM and Management Staff, approved by ESG

12 NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II FOC Beta Test Phase III STAFFING CODE CONV. MGMT REPORTG MOA INIT.STANDARDSSOFTWARE CONVERSION OPERATIONS OUTREACH MAINTAIN Full Staff Common Rqmts, Rsch AgendaDTC/VTC ENS OPS TESTNAEFS OPSCOMMS, IA, etc.CONOPS, Budget DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS ESG BRIEF PROGRAM REVIEW MTG EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP FOC Quarterly Updates to Principals STANDARDS PARTICIPATION TT PM, TEMPS REVISIT PDD/MOA IOC-2IOC-1

13 Implementation Strategy Establish management structure Establish common model architecture (CMA) and standards Initiate common support infrastructure and capabilities – as appropriate Begin necessary software conversion to CMA Identify the common technology requirements Define National research agenda, focused research (as appropriate) and begin deployment of research infrastructure to accelerate transition to operations. Align transition to operation processes NAEFS prototyping and deployment Evolve to next-generation system – target FOC 2015 Building the Next-Generation Global Modeling System - Together

14 Info & Outreach Briefings COPC (November 15) Proposed additional briefings –Joint Staff/OSD (December?) –Academia (AMS Jan 21, 2008) –OFCM – ICCMSSR (Next sched mtg) –R&D Community (Prior to committee formation – can be informal but must be official) NASA NSF FAA OAR/ESRL, GFDL ONR/NRL NCAR

15 Current Status Moving Forward with NUOPC Phase I Staffing Program Management Team Populating Committee Membership Identifying Staff & Committee Tasks Conducting Info & Outreach Briefings

16 Questions?

17 ESMF GEOS-5 CMA

18 Four designated committees: –Common infrastructure, standards, transition & configuration control: Infrastructure & Configuration Control Committee –Common requirements/operational needs & research investment plan: Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) –Common performance metrics (ops & technical): Performance & Metrics Committee –Unified ensemble operations concept: Operational Oversight Committee Additional committees or sub-committees may be chartered by the PM as required. Interim committees only operate during Phase I. Permanent committees chartered in Phase II to maintain, evolve standards, monitor compliance. Interim Committees

19 Membership Membership requires ESG approval –PM recommends committees to ESG –Tri-Agencies and other stakeholders nominate members to PM Membership goals: –NUOPC staff responsible for schedule, results –Primary input from operational centers –Broad community participation –Working level knowledge but able to represent constituency Membership –Chairs of interim committees should be NUOPC staff PM/DPM, Agency representatives, staff contractors –Voting members will be Tri-Agency representatives AFWA, FNMOC, NCEP –Non-voting members will be other stakeholder representatives EMC, OAR, NRL, NCAR, FAA, NASA, University research community, foreign reps –NUOPC staff for coordination, recording minutes, etc.

20 Interim Committee Goals Minimize operational center disruption Achieve common model architecture objectives while sustaining developmental headway Achieve full stakeholder support Develop well-defined standards that will focus research community participation and accelerate development Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology

21 Committee Operations Operational centers agree to charter, agenda, committee structure, agree to accept results PM, committee chair, operational representatives hold pre-meeting: –Agree to committee objectives –Agree to clearly defined set of requirements –Agree to schedule Committee meetings either held in neutral location or rotating location to minimize impact of travel. NUOPC covers travel expenses. Travel funds provided “in kind” by agencies. Invitational travel orders provided to other members.

22 Committee Ops (2) Committee chair responsible for schedule, results NUOPC staff responsible for minutes, reports Committee works to pre-determined, specific requirements to develop initial standards Committee work builds on 2007 working group results Current operational usage defined as starting point Quantify impact, on who, at what cost?

23 Committee Ops (3) Issue resolution: –Committee chair ensures balanced result –PM resolves all conflicts –ESG approves resolution Reporting: –Chair/NUOPC staff will keep PM informed of committee progress –Formal progress report required quarterly or if impasse occurs –PM reports to ESG quarterly on committee progress

24 Committee Results Committees will produce a detailed final report as product - standards, impact, cost, implementation plan, CONOPS. PM/NUOPC staff will review, approve for coordination, and integrate reports PM will widely disseminate draft to allow community comments on report PM will formally coordinate draft report through Tri-Agencies, resolve issues, and forward final report to ESG ESG will approve final committee reports