HOW DO WE BRING DOWN TYRANTS?

THE BIG QUESTIONS: Is there ever any need for tyrants? Machiavelli and Hobbes thought so; even elitists like Plato, Aristotle, and Hamilton thought not. When and why do tyrants fall? When do they survive? China vs. Slobodan Milosevic How do tyrants fall? – Is it best to let them self-implode? (which appears to happen in most cases) – What’s the best strategy for the masses to bring tyrants down: Violence vs. non-violence – Should the world try to bring down tyrants when the people can’t? Why is humanitarian intervention so difficult to do well in a world system of sovereign states?

WHEN AND WHY DO TYRANTS (VS. HARD AUTHORITARIAN SYSTEMS) FALL? CHINA VS. MILOSEVIC What can the Chinese experience teach us? To what extent is Mao Zedong’s China a case of tyranny? (Are his “Great Leap Forward” in the 1950s and the “Cultural Revolution” of the 1960s and 70s” really in the same class as Hitler or Stalin?) Why did students, in China the masses, and—most important—many elites in the army and government stand up to the authorities in 1989? – How does the malignant narcissism of tyrants—including Mao—undermine their effectiveness over time? What bad decisions do they typically make and to what effect? (The Cultural Revolution) – Why does ideological disillusionment and elite fear in tyrannical states grow over time? – Why do tyrannical states face such serious economic problems – Why did Mao’s grasp on power not shift automatically to Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s? Why did he face challenges with economic success? – What are” tipping points,” and why do outsiders and experts consistently fail to predict when a tyranny will fall? Why did students not succeed in China? Govt. and student variables

WHY WAS THE OUTCOME IN SERBIA DIFFERENT?

HOW DO TYRANIES END? (KING OF THE MTN).

WHY DO TYRANTS GET VULNERABLE OVER TIME?

WHY DO TYRANTS STAY TOO LONG?

WHY DO TYRANTS SELF DESTRUCT? (THE MAIN POINTS OF GLAD’S ARTICLE) Are tyrants simply brutal “just” because they have to be to stay in power (ala Machiavelli)? Is it better to be feared than loved by the people and those who could take power away from you? Malignant narcissism: Although tyrants talk about ideological ends, why are they are rarely committed to them or their “comrades”? Why does “grandiosity” leave tyrants so blind to reality testing and prone to testing fate – As they consolidate power, they face ever fewer constraints – Group think prevails; leaders think that they are getting better over time – They don’t learn from mistakes, but instead tend to eliminate the most able around them as scapegoats; this leads to increasing isolation – They challenge the basic morality of those they govern; they think come to think that they can write history and not be accountable. – They engage in reckless conflict, inviting more elite dissent – Over time, they frequently surround themselves with people who would like to kill or replace them (Stalin and Hussein were self aware here b/c of how they came to power. Paranoia and inferiority complexes increase with age, power is a “narcotic”, and tyrants are less easily satisfied over time by adulation and limited violence

WHY DOES CIVIL RESISTANCE WORK BEST? Violence vs. Non-violence: the track-record – Non-violent movements have succeeded in brining down tyrants at 6 times the rate of violent movements that met with armed state resistance – When key defections take place among regime supporters, the odds of bringing down a tyrant is four times as high. If a sig. portion of the security forces defect, a tyrant is nearly 50 times as likely to be pushed out. Why does violence not work very well? – Violent opposition leads to increased cohesion among regime elites who fear that a “revolutionary” outcome will be very harmful for them. – Violence decreases support among key swing groups who support for the regime – Decreases external (i.e. foreign) support for opposition and fear that a system will destabilize What is the “strategy? of non-violence? – Knowing when it will work, organizing first, and targeting it to split the regime: Lots of successful opposition begins outside but it must move inside – Choosing action with great care: Creativity is crucial, highlighting paradoxes, splitting the opposition (esp. with economic boycotts), & laying out a post-struggle scenario clearly that lets regime defectors know that they will survive…especially if they abandon the regime early