Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski 4 miles s. Lamar, CO Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski 4 miles s. Lamar, CO

Persistent Drought Setting the Stage 3 years of drought Intensified ‘12 and ’13 Causation: – La Nina (southern U.S.) partially – 2011 predicted further south but not so extreme and long lasting With rapid intensification it was difficult to prepare and respond in a timely manner

Drought Response Many service-providing entities in the region – NOAA centers/offices (e.g., National Weather Service) – NOAA core partners (State Climate Office, Regional Climate Centers, etc..) – Interagency partners (e.g., DOI, USDA) – State (e.g. KS Water Office), local, private, and NGO organizations But, historically a lack of coordination in “real-time” response to evolving impacts of drought The onset of the drought created an opportunity to coordinate a multi-faceted, regional response among multiple partners

Setting the Stage: Purpose of the Meeting What are current conditions? What can we say about the drought continuing into the second half of 2013? What can we say about long-term trends? What are information needs going forward? In Kansas, Crippling Drought Paralyzes Crops Amy Bickel, The Hutchinson News Published: Jun 9, 2013, 9:37 AM EDT Associated Press Extended Forecast Not Favorable For Drought Improvement Across Western States July 18, 2013 By: Julianne Johnston, Pro Farmer Digital Managing EditorJulianne Johnston

Outlook and Assessment Forums Short- to Medium- Range Forecasts Current Conditions ENSO Impacts & Long-Term Trends Impacts & Vulnerability & Info Needs

Public Law (The NIDIS Act 2006) –“Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts” –“better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”

CO. Drought Assessment Group Colorado Water Availability Task Force State Drought Plan: Impact Task Forces Consensus recommendation to USDM author Weekly Drought Assessments Early Warning and Risk Management Relationship

Midwest and Great Plains Drought Information Webinars NOAA Regional Climate Services, Regional Climate Centers & State Climatologists Since July 2012 (monthly) Webinars include various topics Outlooks, soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, etc… Water Resources (big rivers) Wildlife/Ecosystem impacts Wildfire Drought Monitor & Outlooks USDA crop reports All past Webinars are posted here: To sign up go here: programs/regional-drought-webinarshttp://drought.gov/drought/content/regional- programs/regional-drought-webinars May 24 th, 2013 – nr Lamar, CO

2012 Drought Assessment A comprehensive review of the 2012 drought situation, including: – Meteorological, climatological, and hydrological features – Socioeconomic and environmental impacts – Regional services provided – Lessons learned, best practices, and next steps for early warning Being drafted, to be released in fall 2013

What Caused the 2012 Drought? 6 state study region (CO, WY, NE, KS, MO, IA) Driest May –August on record Immediate cause: lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture No lifting mechanisms in late spring (May-June) High pressure dominated Dry begets dry at some point No clear oceanic connections Some correspondence since the late 90’s of dry tendencies Not especially forecastable…

Local Drought Monitoring National Weather Service: Drought Information Statements (1 or 2/month) – Reservoir & Streamflow – Precipitation & Temperatures – Impacts – Outlooks – Partner Information RESERVOIR PERCENT FULL CHANGE KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE (NORTON DAM) 39.1% -9.4% ENDERS DAM 33.7% -1.3% SWANSON LAKE 31.9% -3.9% HARRY STRUNK LAKE 54.3% -15.3% July 22 nr Hays, KS

Discussion and Purpose of the Meeting How has the drought impacted your operations? What do you see as the greatest short-term challenges for you and the region? What do you see as the greatest long-term challenges for you and the region? What advice can we offer each other to help minimize the impacts from drought? Are there specific types of information that would help in decision making?

THANK YOU First attempt at drought early warning